Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, is named a person who likes to play for time and postpone massive choices. However he might not be capable to do this for much longer.
Domestically, his coalition companions on the far proper threaten to interrupt up the federal government if he agrees to a cease-fire and doesn’t attempt to clear Hamas out of Rafah, in southern Gaza.
Militarily, the strategic logic is to finish the dismantling of Hamas by taking Rafah and controlling the border with Egypt. However diplomatically, his allies, particularly america, are pushing him to agree on a cease-fire, and skip Rafah and the potential civilian casualties a large-scale operation would trigger.
So Mr. Netanyahu is now negotiating and maneuvering on a number of fronts without delay, all of which have a big impact on the conduct of the warfare and his personal future as prime minister.
His current warnings to Palestinians in elements of Rafah to maneuver to areas Israel has designated as secure, adopted late Monday evening by the Israeli army’s seizure of the Gazan facet of the Egyptian border, signaled to his far-right authorities coalition, to Hamas and to the Biden administration that he would proceed to prioritize Israel’s safety pursuits. Extra vital, Israel’s extra slender warfare cupboard, which incorporates senior opposition figures, backed these choices.
The seizure of the Rafah crossing to Egypt, to attempt to full Israel’s safety management of Gaza’s borders, has, for now, averted a large-scale and contentious army operation in Rafah itself, which is full of displaced civilians. It might sign that Israel is making ready in the end to comply with at the least a brief cease-fire in Gaza, whilst the result of these negotiations stays unsure.
“Netanyahu is being pulled in numerous instructions,” with strain mounting on him to reply, mentioned Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel now at Princeton.
Foremost is Mr. Netanyahu’s need to keep away from new elections, which may imply lack of energy and a renewal of the assorted courtroom instances in opposition to him. “Political survival at all times ranks first in Netanyahu’s calculations,” Mr. Kurtzer mentioned.
Then there are the competing pressures on him from “extremists in his personal coalition who wish to proceed the warfare,” he mentioned, and from the hostage households, who need the federal government to prioritize a cease-fire and a launch of extra folks seized in Israel throughout the Hamas-led Oct. 7 assaults.
Externally, the strain comes from Biden administration officers and a few in Congress “who’re shedding persistence over the humanitarian scenario,” he famous. They need a cease-fire and oppose a serious onslaught on Rafah. Lastly there’s “the true, persevering with menace of escalation, particularly from Hezbollah,” he mentioned.
Here’s a nearer take a look at the political, army and diplomatic considerations Mr. Netanyahu confronts as he weighs his subsequent steps.
Politics
Mr. Netanyahu is determined to carry collectively his governing coalition, which has 64 seats within the 120-seat Knesset, or Parliament, a slender majority.
His far-right companions, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, collectively management 14 seats, they usually have vowed to go away the federal government if the prime minister makes too many concessions and agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza, leaving Hamas to say victory. They’ve insisted, as Mr. Netanyahu has additionally accomplished, that the army will transfer on Rafah.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former basic and opposition member of the warfare cupboard, accused the 2 males of “political blackmail” and of standing in the best way of the return of at the least some hostages.
However new elections would virtually actually produce a brand new coalition with out Mr. Ben-Gvir and Mr. Smotrich, so Mr. Netanyahu has some room to maneuver.
Agreeing to a type of momentary cease-fire in levels, as proposed within the present negotiations, may enable Israel to take care of what it says are the 4 Hamas battalions in and underneath Rafah at a a lot slower tempo, over many weeks, particularly now that the strip of Gaza alongside the Egyptian border has been seized.
It might additionally deliver extra hostages residence — not all of them, however a few of the most weak, in addition to some who’re lifeless and might be buried by their households. That might assist diminish the anti-government rallies typically spearheaded by the hostage households.
It might additionally go some approach to pacify President Biden, who may declare a diplomatic victory with a cease-fire, which might additionally enable rather more humanitarian help to circulate into Gaza, enable extra civilians to maneuver to safer areas and even to the north, after they’re screened by Israeli troops, and keep away from a full-scale assault on Rafah.
“Netanyahu is in no hurry to finish the warfare,” mentioned Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator who now leads the U.S./Center East Challenge, a nonprofit coverage institute. “He doesn’t need a cease-fire deal that threatens his coalition or his means to proceed the warfare after a pause. He desires to tug all of it out, as a result of as soon as the warfare is over, what’s the excuse for not having new elections?”
Navy
Israeli army officers and analysts emphasize that chopping off the smuggling of arms and tools from Egypt via the tunnels underneath Rafah is strategically extra vital to Israel than the Hamas fighters left in Rafah.
Regardless of Egyptian denials of intensive smuggling into Gaza, Israeli officers consider that a lot of the extraordinary arsenal and the constructing provides that Hamas collected in Gaza got here via tunnels from Egypt.
“If we finish the warfare with out blocking the tunnels, we might allow Hamas or every other terrorist group within the Strip to rebuild their army capacities,” mentioned Kobi Michael of the Institute for Nationwide Safety Research, a analysis group in Tel Aviv.
Nitzan Nuriel, a reserve brigadier basic and former director of the counterterrorism bureau of the Israeli Nationwide Safety Council, labored with Mr. Netanyahu for a number of years. “Rafah is vital not due to the 4 Hamas battalions which might be nonetheless there,” he mentioned. “Rafah is vital as a result of the message to the Palestinians who dwell in Gaza is that Hamas will be unable to manage Gaza for good.”
In any other case, he mentioned, Gazans would “keep afraid of Hamas and due to this fact will cooperate with Hamas.”
Even a modest operation in Rafah “suits a number of of Netanyahu’s targets concurrently,” mentioned Natan Sachs, director of the Middle for Center East Coverage on the Brookings Establishment.
Like many Israeli officers, together with those that need a cease-fire deal now, Mr. Sachs mentioned, “Netanyahu genuinely believes an operation in Rafah is central to Israel’s general targets — not merely in going after the remaining Hamas forces, however in chopping off their means to resupply by way of smuggling via the Egyptian border.”
The army operation “additionally places strain on Hamas to relent on a few of its extra expansive calls for within the cease-fire negotiations,” Mr. Sachs mentioned.
Regardless of critical American considerations, a restricted operation now in Rafah fits Mr. Netanyahu politically, he mentioned, “with a proper flank that objects to a deal now, earlier than the principle operational objective is achieved, and dealing with public anger over the truth that Hamas remains to be standing, if severely broken.”
Diplomacy
Mr. Netanyahu is underneath huge strain diplomatically — from allies like Washington and Berlin, from the United Nations, from the European Union and from regional Sunni Arab states — to keep away from a serious operation in Rafah.
They need him to permit in rather more humanitarian help to Gaza and comply with a take care of Hamas that would, at the least, promise what the present draft textual content calls a “sustainable calm,” fairly than a everlasting cease-fire.
However such a deal nonetheless wouldn’t resolve the basic divide between Israel and Hamas over easy methods to conclude the battle.
Hamas desires the warfare to finish now, with the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza and the discharge of all hostages in trade for numerous Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
Israel desires to make sure that any cease-fire is momentary, in order that Hamas can’t declare victory and start to revive its management over Gaza.
Nonetheless, after Hamas’s most up-to-date concessions, coupled with the Israeli army strikes to manage the Egyptian border, a cease-fire deal appears rather more doable than earlier than — maybe even fascinating for Mr. Netanyahu.
However Gazans are cautious and mistrustful of Israeli statements. Mkhaimar Abusada is a Gazan political scientist whose college within the enclave, Al-Azhar, has been destroyed within the combating. Now in Cairo together with his household, Mr. Abusada says he’s satisfied that “it doesn’t matter what the worldwide neighborhood says, Netanyahu goes to enter Rafah.”
Mr. Netanyahu “desires to maintain his coalition authorities, to keep away from early elections, to remain prime minister and never go to jail,” he mentioned. “I simply hope he does it in a means that offers in a humane means with the Palestinian civilians.”
However ultimately, Mr. Abusada mentioned, Mr. Netanyahu “and Israel can’t be victorious after this warfare, not with this a lot dying and destruction, with all of the Palestinian civilians and youngsters lifeless.”
