We are possibly witnessing another stealthy move by Washington and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to enhance the Israeli position in a Middle East at war while pretending to do something else. President Joe Biden and his cast of know-nothings have been bleating for months about their desire to arrange a “humanitarian” ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon while also alternatively whining about the Jewish state’s “right to defend itself,” but somehow the arrangements proposed have never quite satisfied Netanyahu. Bibi has repeatedly declared that he will not accept any halt to the fighting, presumably until all the Palestinians are dead, but would accept some kind of suspension of the conflicts as long as he has the option to return to unleashing the mass murder whenever it suits him. He deceptively labels that “making sure that the bad guy ‘terrorists’ abide by the agreement.” In that context of everyone lying to everyone else, Genocide Joe has managed to drag his sorry ass over the finish line with a “whereas laced” US endorsed temporary peace formula for Lebanon that suits Bibi just fine. In fact, it suited him so well that he could not resist renewing his attacking the Lebanese last Thursday even before the ink was dry on the ceasefire documents.
The ceasefire, arranged largely by Amos Hochstein, an Israeli who served in the Israeli army and is now Biden’s roving negotiator, was agreed to on November 27th. Its written provisions include 60 days for Hezbollah to withdraw to the Litani River, 18 miles north of the border, while Israel withdraws from all of south Lebanon that it has occupied. The Lebanese army will occupy the area vacated by Hezbollah and will work with the UNIFIL soldiers to monitor the process and maintain the peace in what will be designated as a weapons free zone. Complicating the agreement, there is a side letter from the United States to Israel confirming American support for Israel to “act in self-defense,” a term that Israel can exploit to reintervene in Lebanon. In the letter, the US also commits itself to share with Israel intelligence on Iran providing any support for Hezbollah. Israel is to be permitted to act “in self-defense” if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire in the area south of the Litani and it is also allowed to conduct reconnaissance flights over Lebanon to monitor developments. As usual, Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed a “win,” stating that he had reached an understanding with the US that Israel would “maintain full military freedom of action” in southern Lebanon. “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to renew terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck with missiles, we will attack.” As 35,000 Hezbollah militants actually live in the disarmed zone and presumably will try to return home, Israel will always have an excuse to resume its offensive.
To be sure, Lebanon was happy to accept any reprieve from the destruction wrought by Israeli bombs and artillery rounds, even if Israeli ground forces had been less than successful. Lebanon’s war losses have been calculated to be upwards of $8.5 billion dollars, together with thousands of civilians killed and injured. That includes Israel’s destruction of 100,000 homes and substantial impacts on health, education, and agriculture, according to the World Bank. But there is nevertheless, of course, a lot of speculation as to why any agreement was reached at all given Netanyahu’s unrelenting demand that he have a free hand to punish his neighbors and Biden’s usual cowardice whenever he is confronted by the Israeli gauleiter. The most interesting theory regarding why Israel has agreed to the US drafted ceasefire with Lebanon is that the Israeli government has finally figured out that it is not exactly winning its two little wars even though it has killed tens of thousands, or possibly even hundreds of thousands, Arabs.
Regarding Israel’s own casualties, one assumes that the US Defense Department knows roughly or even in detail the numbers of dead and wounded that the Israel Occupation Force (IOF) is sustaining in its unconventional warfare in both Gaza and south Lebanon. Some credible analysts even have concluded that the Israeli military is under considerable pressure due to a high casualty rate in ground fighting involving its best soldiers, overreliance on reservists, and shortages of equipment and weapons in spite of the Biden airlifts occurring on an almost daily basis. There are reports that even the Pentagon is now running out of certain types of weapons, including artillery shells and smart bombs. A respite in the fighting against the still formidable Hezbollah enemy would be welcome both to the Israeli government and to the military planners particularly as the ceasefire is drafted to favor Israel, which can intervene in Lebanon at will just by alleging a Lebanese failure to enforce the agreement. Netanyahu may also be looking forward to the Trump factor in seven weeks. Donald Trump has always been a consequence free supporter of Israel and his cabinet is composed of hardcore Zionists. So, there is every reason for Netanyahu to believe that with Trump in power he will be able to manipulate circumstances involving both Gazans and Lebanese to enable a US supported move towards the large-scale attack on Iran that Bibi has wanted for decades.
“Victory” has also become elusive as fighting drags on well into its second year on all fronts and Israel’s “freeing of the hostages” has not only failed to materialize, it has resulted in the actual killing of some prisoners of Hamas by Israeli bombs and gunfire. Israel has failed to establish any of the “realities” it wanted to create by invading Lebanon: there is no buffer zone and instead a full IOF retreat, no Hezbollah disarmament, no Hezbollah withdrawal, and no Hezbollah removal from political power in Lebanon. Publicly, Israel got a decoupling between Gaza and Lebanon, but it also was punished with an international arrest warrant for multiple war crimes and genocide being issued against Israel’s Prime Minister and former Defense Minister. Even though the US has rallied around in defense of Israel, the demands for isolating Israel worldwide due to its clearly demonstrated ongoing genocide will intensify.
The disruption and sinking of the Israeli economy due to the evacuation of the northern tier of the country under Hezbollah pressure, an increasing number of international boycotts, and the closure of many businesses, has been widely observed, as has also been the actual departure of many more educated Jewish Israelis holding US and European passports. There is considerable talk among antiwar Israeli Jews in the diaspora and even in liberal newspapers like Haaretz that Israel is in a very real sense self-destructing.
This all derives from the growing belief that the Israeli leadership has begun to realize that it does not have an effective military solution either to end the war in its favor nor to extend it to include the US as an ally in attacking Iran. If Netanyahu and his generals thought they could continue the carnage for another ninety days until the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, they almost certainly would have gone in that direction without any talk of ceasefire. Instead, leaked reports suggest that the generals themselves are complaining that the government of Netanyahu “has no plan” and have demanding a cutback due to heavy losses.
There are, to be sure, other theories to explain the surprise development of the so-called ceasefire, particularly as it so closely involves the United States and Israel, neither which can be trusted. The lull in the fighting certainly gives the IOF a break during which time it can regroup and re-equip with the help of Washington. And, as noted above, the concession to Israel that it can re-engage if it determines that Lebanon is not abiding by the ceasefire will be easy to manipulate as Israel is, if anything, a master of deception. So the agreement to down arms benefits Israel with Netanyahu, backed by the US, continuing to be able to call the shots on what comes next on the Hezbollah front.
So will the ceasefire hold or is it another gimmick by the US and Israel? In fact, as noted above, the uneasy truce between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah was violated by Israel on its second day in Lebanon on Thursday, by an airstrike that it inevitably claimed targeted militants violating terms of the cease-fire deal. The Israeli strike was the first of its kind since the US backed ceasefire went into effect before dawn on the day before. In spite of the clear violation, neither of the war’s combatants, Israel or Hezbollah, seemed keen to immediately return to full-scale fighting. The Israeli military said the incident, near the border in southern Lebanon, had targeted two militants entering a Hezbollah rocket facility that had been used to fire into Israel. Lebanon’s army, which is set to play a major role in enforcing the truce, also accused Israel of violating the ceasefire “several more times” on Thursday afternoon. The Israeli military claimed that its soldiers had in fact interdicted other militants attempting to enter into southern Lebanon. “With the same power we used to secure the agreement, we will now enforce it no less so,” Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, the Israeli military’s chief of staff, said in a subsequent video. It is no doubt precisely how Israel will behave in the future and how little the US, as a guarantor of the agreement together with France, will be tempted to intervene to maintain the peace contrary to Netanyahu’s wishes. That partisanship by Washington is precisely the problem and it suggests that the both the integrity and viability of the ceasefire might reasonably be questioned.
Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation (Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is councilforthenationalinterest.org, address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is [email protected].
