What to be careful for on election evening

Good morning. Not lengthy now. Right here’s a short information to what I believe a number of the most attention-grabbing and noteworthy in a single day outcomes can be, and what to look out for in them.

Signs of the universe

10pm

Shut of ballot. Time to fireplace up the Monetary Instances reside weblog, the place we’ll be protecting the outcomes all through the evening. The primary huge factor would be the exit ballot, a collectively funded effort between the UK’s important broadcasters, a group of psephologists and the pollster Ipsos. (Ipsos’s Michael Clemence explains how the exit ballot works right here.)

The headline consequence will most likely be about proper, however the emergence of Reform UK, the revival of the Liberal Democrats as a severe drive able to profitable seats, and the handful of winnable constituencies for the Greens all might complicate some particular person outcomes.

Nonetheless, it will likely be the one factor we actually have to debate for some time, although you’ll be able to count on the bloodletting/spinning/sudden howls of anguish by the pollsters to begin straight away. We received’t get our first outcomes till about 10.40pm on the earliest.

11.30pm

One subplot of election evening is the race to be the primary to declare, with returning officers resorting to all kinds of expediencies and drafting in volunteers to ship a sooner depend.

Lately, this has been an solely north-eastern affair. In 2017 and 2019, Newcastle Central (held by Labour’s Chi Onwurah) narrowly beat Houghton & Sunderland South (held by Labour’s Bridget Phillipson), which had declared first in each election since 1992, when it narrowly beat Torbay. Sunderland will hope to get again to profitable methods this yr, however each constituencies face competitors from Blyth & Ashington (a brand new seat, nominally Labour held).

They received’t inform us very a lot in and of themselves, until the polls are catastrophically off. (I’ll be discussing what we do know on Radio 4 at round this time additionally.)

12.15am

Perennial marginal Swindon South will declare, as will Basildon and Billericay. Basildon and Billericay is likely one of the Conservative social gathering’s most secure seats; if it loses right here and even whether it is shut, that may inform us one thing. That stated, I’d urge some warning, as a result of the circumstances wherein Ric Holden, the Conservative social gathering chair, got here to be chosen right here have been controversial to say the least. Historical past teaches us that there can be a much bigger swing in opposition to the Tories than elsewhere because of this.

Keep in mind additionally that on election evening, what doesn’t occur can generally inform us as a lot as what does. The 2019 reminiscence that’s etched in my thoughts is just not about any of the particular outcomes, however is the second ITV used the phrases “there’s a recount in Blyth Valley”, as a result of that would solely have meant that the numerous swing from Labour to Conservative was occurring and that Boris Johnson’s huge win was very a lot on. (Recounts solely occur when the result’s shut.) If there’s a recount in Basildon and Billericay, and it will get to half previous midnight with no declaration, that’s in some ways as telling as getting a declaration.

1am

Our first three Scottish constituencies ought to declare: Rutherglen, which Labour received in a by-election, is true on the foothills of Labour’s goal seat record in Scotland, and a modest revival in Scottish Labour fortunes ought to see it win right here. Hamilton & Clyde Valley is just a little trickier, and East Kilbride & Strathaven harder. So we can have a little bit of a way of what the general image in Scotland may seem like — deal with these primarily as “handful of seats, 10 seats, 15 seats” indicators so far as the Labour battle in Scotland goes and that’ll provide you with an excellent gauge for what the remainder of the evening may seem like.

1.45am

Our first seat within the Conservative-Liberal Democrat battlefield, Harrogate & Knaresborough, will declare. Conservative since 2010.

2am

The hour of reality. That is when election evening begins to warmth up and if you’re the sort of one that enjoys naps this is able to be an excellent time to set your alarm for. Marginals throughout the UK will declare and by 3am we’ll have a good suggestion if the exit ballot is true and what the seemingly final result is.

Outcomes for the North West Essex constituency the place Kemi Badenoch is standing ought to are available, although troubles with postal voting delays might result in issues.

2.30am

Declaration in Rochdale, the place George Galloway’s bid for re-election is being challenged by Labour’s Paul Waugh. Keir Starmer’s Holborn and St Pancras seat will declare, he’ll make a brief speech at his depend. Additionally anticipated to declare is the Vale of Glamorgan, a perennial Welsh marginal (it has backed the winner at each election, in Westminster and the devolved legislature, since its creation in 1983).

3am

Cheltenham, the place the justice secretary Alex Chalk is defending a slim 981 majority from the Liberal Democrats, and Chingford & Woodford Inexperienced, the place Iain Duncan Smith is combating to be re-elected in opposition to Labour’s Shama Tatler and unbiased former Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen, are your huge headline-grabbers right here.

3.15am

Bristol Central, the Inexperienced social gathering’s primary goal on this election, the place co-leader Carla Denyer might unseat shadow tradition secretary Thangam Debbonaire.

3.30am

Jeremy Hunt and Grant Shapps will uncover if they’ve held on in Godalming & Ash and Welwyn Hatfield respectively. Hunt faces a problem from the Liberal Democrats, Shapps from Labour.

4am

Rishi Sunak’s seat of Richmond & Northallerton will declare, he’ll likewise make a speech. One other shadow cupboard minister with a tough native battle is Shabana Mahmood in Birmingham Ladywood, the place Akhmed Yakoob, who did very nicely working as an unbiased candidate for the West Midlands mayoralty, is working in opposition to her.

4.30am

Ashfield, the place Lee Anderson — Labour councillor turned Conservative MP turned Reform defector — is hoping to be re-elected. Hoping to cease him are usually not solely the Conservatives and Labour, but additionally Jason Zadrozny, a former Liberal Democrat who virtually received the seat in 2010 and whose unbiased social gathering runs the native council.

Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr. Craig Williams, Sunak’s parliamentary non-public secretary, will uncover the exact price of his “flutter” on the date of the final election.

North East Somerset and Hanham. I do know there may be quite a lot of reader curiosity on this constituency, the place Jacob Rees-Mogg faces a tricky problem from Labour’s Dan Norris, who represented the predecessor seat of Wansdyke from 1997 to 2010.

In Brighton Pavilion, Siân Berry will study whether or not she has succeeded in protecting the seat Inexperienced, whereas there’s a combat between the Alliance and the DUP in Lagan Valley, a seat normally thought of a unionist stronghold.

5am

Earley & Woodley, the place former FT journalist Yuan Yang is the Labour candidate, will declare.

At this level it must be fairly apparent who has received the final election. Almost all the outcomes can be identified by mid-morning. For a recap of the important thing insurance policies, events and polls, the FT has a neat little information right here.

Now do this

(Georgina) At this historic juncture, it felt a bit poetic seeing the Nationwide Theatre revival of Simon McBurney’s Mnemonic play final evening, 25 years after its first staging. Its meditation on reminiscence, humanity and the way we relate to at least one one other is at occasions charmingly humorous, with mesmerising video and set design. Runs to August 10.

Prime tales at present

• No Stride in his step | Labour is heading for the largest “landslide majority” Britain has ever seen, based on one in every of Rishi Sunak’s closest ministerial allies, as he in impact conceded defeat for tomorrow’s vote.

• Boris warns in opposition to a Labour ‘sledgehammer majority’ | Boris Johnson has made a last-minute intervention within the Conservative election marketing campaign, urging wavering Tory voters to stay with the social gathering.

• Motion wanted on prisons inside days | Jails in England and Wales will be at “operational breaking level” inside days of the final election, requiring a possible Labour authorities to take robust selections instantly, the top of the jail governors’ union has warned.

• Knife-edge seats might tip Tories from defeat to wipeout | The nationwide collapse of the once-solid Conservative vote means there are actually about 120 seats the place the margin of victory is predicted to be fewer than 5 proportion factors, based on the FT’s projection mannequin.

Beneath is the Monetary Instances’ live-updating UK poll-of-polls, which combines voting intention surveys printed by main British pollsters. Go to the FT poll-tracker web page to find our methodology and discover polling information by demographic together with age, gender, area and extra.