In 2016, my beloved homeland of Orange County shocked political observers by favoring Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, the primary time we went with a Democrat for president since FDR.
In 2018, O.C. voters made historical past but once more when we despatched an all-Democratic congressional delegation to Capitol Hill. The next yr, extra folks in O.C. had been registered Democrats than Republicans — one other first.
Native and nationwide media retailers tripped over themselves to report on this political earthquake. Orange County — land of Richard Nixon and kooky conservatism, crucible of evangelical Christianity and tradition warfare politics, the place Ronald Reagan repeatedly stated was “the place the great Republicans go earlier than they die” — now sported a political shade by no means earlier than related to our suburban sprawl of three.2 million folks:
Purple.
In an period the place Trump was ascendant, seeing O.C. flip extra liberal supplied hope to Democrats nationwide. As a result of if Orange County — Orange County! — may reject the GOP, it may occur wherever.
That narrative continued in 2020 as O.C. voters as soon as once more rejected Trump, whilst Republicans Younger Kim and Michelle Metal received congressional seats, and once more two years later, though Republicans received the county in all statewide elections. This yr, political pundits are doubling down on the concept that Orange County’s mauve march continues.
Publications from the Guardian to this one now often use the colour to explain O.C.’s political hue. Longtime political advisor Mike Madrid will host a podcast this summer season referred to as “Purple County, Blue County, Orange County” (I sat down for an episode), the place he’ll argue that the way forward for American politics is right here. The podcast is produced by UC Irvine’s College of Social Ecology, which lately launched a ballot together with the cheeky assertion that “Orange is the New Purple.”
Within the ballot of 804 Orange County adults, President Biden holds a wholesome lead amongst possible voters, most of whom are additionally going with the Democratic candidate of their congressional districts. The respondents had been virtually evenly cut up of their occasion identifications, with a few third Republican, a 3rd Democrat and a 3rd selecting another choice.
UC Irvine’s findings are already getting consideration and thrilling Democrats. Cash will in all probability circulate towards congressional races, as a result of taking out Metal and Kim and preserving the seat at present occupied by Rep. Katie Porter may also help flip the Home.
However Orange County’s purple revolution jogs my memory of Jesus’ bitter remark within the Gospels {that a} prophet is honored all over the place besides in his hometown, and amongst his circle of relatives.
Whereas the rise of Democrats in O.C. has made all of the headlines, the info on the bottom inform a distinct story. By way of native political energy, Republicans nonetheless rule — and it’s not even shut.
Orange County Board of Supervisors Chairman Donald P. Wagner, seen in 2020, lately received reelection with a convincing 63% of the vote.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Instances)
They maintain each countywide elected place and all of the seats on the Orange County Board of Training. Whereas reform-minded sheriffs and district attorneys have received in main metro areas in recent times, O.C.’s prime lawmen are proudly regressive Republicans — and voters like it. Dist. Atty. Todd Spitzer received his 2022 reelection bid outright within the major. Sheriff Don Barnes did even higher that spring: there was no election as a result of nobody bothered to run in opposition to him.
There are extra Republican Meeting members from O.C. than Democratic ones, and a majority of metropolis councils within the county lean GOP. Democrats do maintain all however one state Senate seat, however on the Board of Supervisors, their majority is barely putative as a result of Doug Chaffee, who represents northern Orange County, has the pesky behavior of siding along with his GOP colleagues a bit an excessive amount of.
Political change is going on right here, however to behave as if a purple Orange County exists is harmful for Democrats. It lulls them into believing their very own hype — and native historical past affords a cautionary story.
In 1990, Republicans held a 22% voter registration benefit over Democrats, and the concept that Democrats may matter exterior of Santa Ana and a handful of different cities was by no means thought-about, as a result of it was so outlandish.
What did the GOP do with that benefit? They let it erode like the shoreline in San Clemente.
Pundits attribute this growth to the exodus of white Republicans to different states, the emergence of the Latino vote and a rise in college-educated voters, who overwhelmingly sided with Biden over Trump within the UC Irvine ballot.
No, it was hubris — that grand leveler of the mighty — that did the GOP in. The occasion alienated Latino voters for a era by backing the anti-immigrant Prop. 187, and it let a once-vaunted farm system of candidates dry up. Leaders determined to face athwart a liberalizing Orange County as an alternative of adapt.
Democrats, however, capitalized on openings — the GOP warfare on LGBTQ+ and abortion rights, court-mandated district elections, ever-increasing cost-of-living — with two successive occasion chairs, Fran Sdao and Ada Briceño, who performed to win as an alternative of settling for perpetual second-banana standing. The historic developments of 2016, 2018 and 2019 all got here due to an underdog mentality that assumed nothing.
Nick Hernandez, left, and Mary Carter, heart, volunteers with the Laguna Seashore Democratic Get together, assist Sydney Magno, of Riverside, register to vote as a Democrat on the Democratic Get together of Orange County sales space in the course of the OC Honest in Costa Mesa in 2019.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Instances)
I hope Orange County Democrats bear in mind this. Their victories have labored like chlorine within the whiny conservative swamp that was Orange County. However considering we now wade in a purple wonderland proved disastrous in 2022. Moreover the reelections of Spitzer and Barnes, the occasion endorsed a extra progressive Democrat to tackle Chaffee, solely to see Chaffee win decisively.
Even worse was what occurred in Huntington Seashore. Main as much as the overall election, 4 of town’s seven council members had been Democrats — a once-unthinkable growth in MAGA-by-the-Sea. All native liberals needed to do was win a kind of seats, and so they may have created a blue beachside haven akin to HB’s rival for the Surf Metropolis nickname, Santa Cruz.
As a substitute, a bunch of Democrats ran and canceled one another out. Republicans, in the meantime, fashioned a slate and took over the Metropolis Council. This new majority has turned Huntington Seashore right into a poster baby for Trumpism, and so they’re not performed: one other slate of hard-right candidates is taking over the three remaining Democratic council members in November.
Democrats have already staged key victories this yr, hinting that they’ve realized their classes. They beat again a recall of Santa Ana councilmember Jessie Lopez and helped recall two conservative members of the Orange Unified college board. In each circumstances, they had been going up in opposition to better-funded opposition and fought as in the event that they lived within the ruby crimson O.C. of not that way back.
Go away the ideas of a purple reign to Prince, O.C. Dems — there’s nonetheless a whole lot of work to do.
