A particularly severe debate is already raging amongst chosen circles of energy/intelligence in Moscow – and the guts of the matter couldn’t be extra incandescent.
To chop to the chase: what actually occurred in Kursk? Was the Russian Ministry of Protection caught napping? Or did they see it coming and profited to arrange a lethal lure for Kiev?
Nicely-informed gamers keen to share just a few nuggets on situation of anonymity all stress the intense sensitivity of all of it. An intel professional although has supplied what could also be interpreted as a treasured clue: “It’s quite shocking to see such a focus of pressure was unnoticed by satellite tv for pc and drone surveillance at Kursk, however I might not exaggerate its significance.”
One other intel professional prefers to emphasize that “the overseas intel part is weak because it was very badly run.” This can be a direct reference to the state of affairs after former safety overseer Nikolai “Yoda” Patrushev, throughout Putin’s post-inauguration reshuffle, was transferred from his put up as secretary of the Safety Council to function a particular presidential aide.
The sources, cautiously, appear to converge on a really severe risk: “There appears to have been a breakdown in intel; they don’t appear to have observed the buildup of troops on the Kursk border”.
One other analyst although has supplied a far more particular state of affairs, in response to which a hawkish navy faction, unfold throughout the Ministry of Protection and the intel equipment – and antagonistic to the brand new Minister of Protection Belousov, an economist – let the Ukrainian invasion proceed with two targets in thoughts: set a lure for Kiev’s prime enemy commanders and troops, who have been diverted from the – collapsing – Donbass entrance; and put further stress on Putin to lastly go for the top of the snake and end off the conflict.
This hawkish faction, by the way, regards Chief of the Normal Workers Gerasimov as “completely incompetent”, within the phrases of 1 intel professional. There’s no smoking gun, however Gerasimov allegedly ignored a number of warnings a few Ukrainian buildup close to the Kursk border.
A retired intel professional is much more controversial. He complains that “traitors of Russia” truly “stripped three areas from troops to give up them to the Ukrainians.” Now, these “traitors of Russia” shall be ready “to ‘change’ the town of Suzha for leaving the faux nation of Ukraine and put it up for sale as an inevitable resolution.”
By the way, solely this Thursday Belousov began chairing a collection of conferences to enhance safety within the “three areas” – Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk.
Hawks within the siloviki equipment don’t make it a secret that Gerasimov must be fired – and changed by fabled Normal Sergey “Armageddon” Surovikin. In addition they enthusiastically assist the FSB’s Alexander Bortnikov – who de facto solved the extraordinarily murky Prigozhin affair – as the person now actually supervising The Large Image in Kursk.
And the following one is Belgorod
Nicely, it’s difficult.
President Putin’s response to the Kursk invasion was seen in his physique language. He was livid: for the flagrant navy/intel failure; for the plain lack of face; and for the truth that this buries any risk of rational dialogue about ending the conflict.
But he managed to show the upset round very quickly, by designating Kursk as a counter-terrorist operation (CTO); supervised by the FSB’s Bortnikov; and with an inbuilt “take no prisoners” rationale. Each Ukrainian in Kursk not keen to give up is a possible goal – set for elimination. Now or later, regardless of how lengthy it takes.
Bortnikov is the hands-on specialist. Then there’s the Overseer of the entire navy/civilian response: Alexey Dyumin, the brand new secretary of the State Council, who amongst different earlier posts was the deputy head of the particular operations division of GRU (navy intel). Dyumin doesn’t reply on to the Ministry of Protection nor the FSB: he’s reporting on to the President.
Translation: Gerasimov now appears to be at greatest a figurehead in the entire Kursk drama. The boys in cost are Bortnikov and Dyumin.
The Kursk P.R. gambit is about to massively fail. Primarily, the Ukrainian forces are shifting away from their traces of communication and provides into Russian territory. A parallel will be made with what occurred to Discipline Marshall von Paulus at Stalingrad when the German Military turned overextended.
The Russians are already within the technique of chopping off the Ukrainians in Kursk – breaking off their traces of provide. What’s left of the crack troopers launched into Kursk must flip again, going through Russians each at their back and front. Catastrophe looms.
Irrepressible commander of the Akhmat particular forces, Main Normal Apti Alaudinov, confirmed on Rossiya-1 TV that at the very least 12,000 Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) entered Kursk, together with lots of foreigners (Brits, French, Poles). That can turn into a “take no prisoners” on a large scale.
Anybody with an IQ above room temperature is aware of Kursk is a NATO operation – conceived with a excessive diploma of chance by an Anglo-American combo supervising the Ukronazi cannon fodder.
Something Kiev does depends upon American ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) and NATO weapons methods in fact operated by NATO personnel.
Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the sweaty inexperienced T-shirt actor in Kiev, admitted that Kiev “mentioned” the assault “with Western companions”. The “Western companions” – Washington, London, Berlin – in full cowardly regalia, deny it.
Bortnikov received’t be fooled. He succinctly said, on the document, that this was a Kiev terrorist assault supported by the West.
We at the moment are getting into the stage of hardcore positioning fight certain to destroy villages and cities. Will probably be ugly. Russian navy analysts comment that if a buffer zone had been preserved means again in March 2022, mid-range artillery exercise would have been restricted to Ukrainian territory. Yet one more controversial choice by the Russian Normal Workers.
Russia will ultimately remedy the Kursk drama – mopping up small Ukrainian teams in a methodically deadly means. But very delicate questions on the way it occurred – and who let it occur – merely received’t vanish. Heads must – figuratively – roll. As a result of that is just the start. The following incursion shall be in Belgorod. Prepare for extra blood on the tracks.
