Democrat Adam Grey, left, is difficult Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) to characterize California’s thirteenth Congressional District.
(Related Press)
In a closely agricultural San Joaquin Valley district that encompasses all of Merced County and elements of Fresno, Madera, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties, Republican Rep. John Duarte of Modesto will as soon as once more face off towards Adam Grey after narrowly vanquishing the Democrat in 2022.
Two years in the past, this was the second-closest Home race within the nation, with Duarte successful by simply 564 votes. It is going to be some of the avidly watched races within the nation once more this yr.
“Proper now, the one most susceptible Republican incumbent is John Duarte, for my part,” Wasserman mentioned of the California races.
“Adam Grey got here inside a hair of successful the seat [in 2022]. Duarte shouldn’t be but as established a political model as [David] Valadao,” Wasserman defined, evaluating the freshman consultant to his five-term GOP counterpart to the south. “And in a presidential cycle, this district should vote for a Democrat.”
The district had low Democratic turnout in 2022 however favored Biden by 11 factors in 2020, based on knowledge from California Goal E-book.
Wasserman harassed that there have been nonetheless open questions in regards to the power of Biden’s help amongst Latino voters. A state of affairs the place Trump manages to make inroads with these voters would favor Duarte, Wasserman mentioned.
The district has a slight Latino majority, with white voters additionally accounting for practically 40% of the citizens, based on knowledge from California Goal E-book. It consists of cities like Madera, Ceres and Merced and parts of Modesto and Turlock, in addition to rural swaths of the San Joaquin Valley.
Regardless of Biden’s double-digit margin of victory in 2020, Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle beat Gov. Gavin Newsom by greater than eight factors within the district in 2022, a partisan see-sawing that speaks to the big variety of unbiased voters within the district in addition to robust Republican turnout within the 2022 midterms.
As of late February, Democrats held a 13-percentage-point registration benefit, whereas no get together choice voters made up greater than a fifth of the citizens.
Grey considerably outraised Duarte in the latest submitting interval ending on March 31, however Duarte nonetheless has extra cash available, with $1.8 million, to Grey’s $1.2 million reserve, based on federal filings.
