Final 12 months, I wrote a protracted article in regards to the harmfulness of the Covid vaccines. Though most of it was merely reporting the contents of educational medical papers, I did make one unique contribution to the topic by analyzing the quantitative relationship between international locations’ vaccination charges and subsequent demise charges.
Nearly all international locations publish abstract statistics on all types of well being information, together with country-wide vaccination charges and demise charges, and that data is aggregated by information reporting web sites like Our World In Knowledge. Discovering a relationship between earlier Covid vaccinations and later mortality, even when it’s for complete international locations reasonably than for people, can recommend a hyperlink between the 2. (Utilizing people’ well being information would clearly be significantly better, however that information is tough to get.) It might be encouraging if international locations which inoculated extra of their residents in opposition to Covid had fewer general deaths afterwards, however sadly the impact is reliably the alternative signal. So, my article final 12 months correlated Covid vaccinations and all-cause mortality for each nation on the earth that supplied such information. I discovered that the international locations which vaccinated the most individuals in 2021 suffered the very best extra mortality (extra deaths than anticipated in comparison with deaths in earlier years) in 2022. This consequence was statistically vital however not giant. That’s to say, it was sufficiently big to not have been brought on by random probability, however sufficiently small to be pretty inconsequential for most individuals.
Now, in 2024, country-level well being information for the 12 months 2023 is accessible on-line at ourworldindata.org, so I’m doing an replace. The report I wrote final 12 months was very lengthy. This replace might be transient. I gained’t embody any particulars about how I processed the information. I used precisely the identical technique as final 12 months, so anybody can learn what I wrote then. (I understand that precisely zero folks might be on this, however final 12 months I felt compelled to elucidate what I did in sufficient element that my outcomes might be simply replicated.) All I’ll report on this replace are the ultimate outcomes.
First, let me repeat what I discovered final 12 months. Utilizing every nation as an information level, I ran a linear regression of how international locations’ whole vaccinations per individual in 2021 affected these international locations’ extra mortality in % in 2022. That is the regression summarized in a single line:
| Predictor | Coefficient | T-Statistic | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaccinations | 6.05 | 3.50 | 0.0009 |
The estimated system linking previous vaccinations to later deaths is:
- excess_mortality_percent_2022 = 6.05 * total_vaccinations_per_person_2021
The reason in English:
This regression exhibits a 6% improve in all-cause deaths in 2022 for each vaccination given in 2021, a T-statistic of three.50 which implies the connection of vaccinations to deaths is statistically vital, and a lower than 0.1% probability that this massive an impact might happen randomly.
To be clear, the 6% improve in all-cause deaths from vaccinations doesn’t imply that the all-cause demise price elevated from 1% of the inhabitants per 12 months (typical of Western nations) to 7%, which might be catastrophic. It means it elevated from 1% to 1.06%, which is fairly trivial.
These are the outcomes from the brand new information obtainable this 12 months, displaying how 2022 vaccinations affected 2023 deaths:
| Predictor | Coefficient | T-statistic | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaccinations | 8.31 | 3.84 | 0.0003 |
The forecasting system is:
- excess_mortality_percent_2023 = 8.31 * total_vaccinations_per_person_2022
The leads to English:
This regression exhibits an 8% improve in all-cause deaths in 2023 for each vaccination given in 2022, a T-statistic of three.84 which implies the connection of vaccinations to deaths is statistically vital, and a a lot lower than 0.1% probability that this massive an impact might happen randomly.
To summarize: What I discovered final 12 months was that the extra folks bought vaccinated in 2021, the extra folks died in 2022. This replace finds the identical relationship between vaccinations in 2022 and deaths in 2023. In comparison with the sooner outcomes, the brand new T-statistic is analogous (it’s about as statistically vital) and the brand new coefficient is bigger (there have been extra deaths per vaccination). However whether or not the impact on deaths is 6% or 8%, I nonetheless contemplate this mainly inconsequential. In fact, vaccine believers assured us that the vaccines would save many lives, not take many lives.
Beneath is a graph of X = vaccinations in 2022 vs. Y = mortality in 2023 for all nations with publicly obtainable information, displaying unmistakably extra deaths throughout 2023 within the international locations which vaccinated essentially the most throughout 2022. Every information level is labeled with the nation’s identify and the best-fit line for all of the factors is proven in blue:
The outlier level for Japan deserves particular point out. Japan continues to exhibit the Asian stereotype of maximum social conformity. They’re actually the one nation on the earth to inject greater than 1 vaccine per citizen throughout 2022. In reality, the typical Japanese grownup has now acquired 2 unique photographs plus 2 to three booster photographs for a complete of 4 to five Covid vaccinations. And so they apparently is not going to cease getting jabbed till the federal government tells them to cease. When that day comes, I’m positive they are going to observe the brand new instructions simply as obediently as they did the previous instructions.
Now that I’ve two years of consecutive information (2021 vaccinations/2022 mortality and 2022 vaccinations/2023 mortality), I can mix them into one regression (2021 and 2022 vaccinations predicting 2022 and 2023 deaths). Combining the 2021/2022 information with the 2022/2023 information will increase the facility of the regression. Not solely are there twice as many factors within the mixed evaluation, however the information values have a wider vary. In 2021, most international locations vaccinated most of their residents (the typical variety of vaccines given was 1.5 per individual). In 2022, those self same international locations vaccinated far fewer folks (the typical photographs given per individual was solely 0.4). Combining each years of information encompasses a wider vary of nationwide vaccination insurance policies (1 – 2 vaccines per individual in 2021 and 0 – 1 vaccines per individual in 2022), so this offers extra of a distinction to allow the calculation to higher distinguish between good and unhealthy insurance policies.
Listed below are the mixed outcomes, displaying 2021 vaccinations inflicting 2022 deaths plus 2022 vaccinations inflicting 2023 deaths:
| Predictor | Coefficient | T-statistic | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaccinations | 6.26 | 5.10 | 0.0000 |
The corresponding system is:
- excess_mortality_percent_2022_2023 = 6.26 * total_vaccinations_per_person_2021_2022
In English:
This regression exhibits a 6% improve in all-cause deaths in 2022 and 2023 for each vaccination given in 2021 and 2022, a excessive T-statistic of 5.10 which implies the connection of vaccinations to deaths may be very statistically vital, and an nearly 0.0% probability that this massive an impact might happen randomly.
The mixed scatter plot of vaccinations vs. mortality actually exhibits how unhealthy the excessive vaccination country-years had been. Every nation seems twice, with the excessive vaccine/excessive demise 12 months of 2021/2022 in purple (for hazard) and the low vaccine/low demise 12 months of 2022/2023 in inexperienced (for relative security):
Be aware that the values on the X axis span a bigger vary than on the earlier graph (0 to 2.5 vaccinations per individual reasonably than 0 to 1.5). This makes it simpler for the regression (and even simply the human eye) to differentiate international locations’ unhealthy vaccination insurance policies (plenty of photographs in 2021 inflicting excessive extra mortality in 2022) from international locations’ good vaccination insurance policies (few photographs in 2022 inflicting low extra mortality in 2023).
It’s great information that extra mortality dropped a lot between 2022 and 2023. It fell particularly sharply within the US and is now close to zero right here. (You possibly can see the purple and inexperienced factors labeled “United States” underneath the 2 years of factors for “Uruguay” within the graph above.) Whether or not it is because the Covid pandemic is over so persons are now not dying of Covid, or as a result of the Covid vaccination program grew to become unpopular so persons are now not dying from the vaccines, I don’t know.
(By the way in which, a technical notice: extra mortality was a lot decrease in every single place in 2023 than in 2022. World extra mortality is now near zero, which means demise charges on common have returned to their pre-Covid ranges. This might be as a result of vaccination charges had been a lot decrease in 2022 than in 2021. Or perhaps it’s as a result of the Covid pandemic ended after Omicron in 2022 so there have been fewer Covid deaths in 2023. Or maybe it’s one thing else altogether. No one is aware of. However to manage for the chance that 2023 was totally different from 2022 for causes that don’t have anything to do with the vaccines, I ran the a number of regression above with a 12 months indicator variable to take away the totally different yearly technique of the surplus mortality charges. This indicator variable entered extraordinarily insignificantly and didn’t considerably change the coefficient on vaccinations. As a result of it was statistically insignificant, I might simply take away the variable from the regression. Nonetheless, to be further cautious, I’ve left it in. With out the 12 months variable, the linear regression would present vaccinations inflicting barely extra deaths than within the desk above. I’m making an attempt to bend over backwards to be goal and never anti-vax, however it doesn’t matter what I do the nation information nonetheless exhibits that the vaccines brought about extra deaths.)
The Covid vaccines got here out greater than 3 years in the past, and nearly nobody nonetheless believes the ridiculous story they advised us then that the vaccines forestall Covid an infection and transmission. However most individuals do consider that the vaccines reduce the severity of the illness, decreasing their danger of hospitalization and demise from Covid. And they’re most likely proper about that. However regardless of how efficient the vaccines could also be, if my regressions are right, the lives they save are nonetheless outnumbered by the deaths they trigger, so the web impact of getting vaccinated – much less extreme Covid however extra extreme unwanted effects – is to extend your probability of dying. And what causes extra deaths nearly definitely additionally causes extra hospitalizations, accidents, illness, and ache. The online impact of the Covid vaccines has been to extend mortality and morbidity.
My regression evaluation displaying internet hurt from the vaccines can also be totally in line with the Pfizer and Moderna medical trials which discovered that the vaccines decreased hospitalizations and deaths from Covid, however elevated hospitalizations and deaths from unwanted effects, with the web consequence being that the vaccinated group suffered worse well being outcomes – extra extreme sickness, hospitalizations, and deaths – than the placebo group. The pharmaceutical corporations’ personal medical trials confirmed unequivocally “vaccinated group sick / placebo group wholesome.” They summarized these horrible outcomes for the general public as “vaccinated group wholesome / placebo group sick.” Then they made billions of {dollars} promoting this junk to individuals who clamored to take it.
The pharma corporations even printed the medical trial experiences on-line, understanding that nobody would ever learn them. Or, extra exactly, 99% of Individuals couldn’t perceive them, and the 1% who might, such because the FDA, don’t consider within the precept “inform the reality and let the folks resolve.” Their precept is “lie to manage what folks do”, which is the alternative. Pharma guess, appropriately, that regardless of how large their lie, nobody in authority would ever contradict them.
Final 12 months, I additionally carried out the identical sort of regression evaluation on vaccination and mortality information for the 50 states within the US. I discovered no statistically vital impact of vaccinations on deaths within the US. The states which vaccinated rather a lot (sometimes blue states) had no greater or decrease extra mortality than the states which vaccinated slightly (purple states). This 12 months, utilizing up to date state-level information for vaccination charges in 2022 to forecast extra mortality in 2023, the outcomes had been the identical – no statistically vital impact of vaccinations on deaths among the many totally different US states.
I can even mix the 2 years of US state information that are actually obtainable like I did with the nation information. Right here is the plot of each years of factors mixed. Every state seems twice, with the 2021 values (excessive vaccination/excessive demise) in purple and the 2022 values (low vaccination/low demise) in inexperienced. The distinction between the 2 years is clear:
This plot exhibits the 2 units of yearly factors, that are visibly fairly distinct – the 2021/2022 information are the cluster of purple factors within the higher proper nook displaying excessive vaccination charges and excessive mortality charges, and the 2022/2023 information are the cluster of inexperienced factors within the decrease left nook displaying low vaccination and low mortality. The blue best-fit line exhibits an unmistakable relationship between vaccinations and deaths. Doing a easy linear regression of those two years of vaccinations predicting extra deaths produces a particularly vital consequence. Nonetheless, that is solely pushed by the decrease common mortality charges in 2023 than in 2022 which can have been brought about just by fewer Covid deaths. Once I put a yearly indicator variable within the regression, the impact of vaccinations on deaths turns into statistically insignificant, so I can’t make certain that the massive drop in US mortality in 2023 was brought on by the massive drop in US vaccinations in 2022.
The truth that these two years of US state information type such distinct clusters exhibits two issues clearly:
- Individuals took rather a lot fewer vaccines in 2022 than in 2021.
- Individuals suffered rather a lot fewer deaths in 2023 than in 2022.
This doesn’t essentially imply that the less vaccines in 2022 brought about the less deaths in 2023. But it surely’s definitely in line with the declare that the vaccines trigger lethal short-term unwanted effects. Nonetheless, it’s not in line with the assumption that the vaccines trigger lethal long-term unwanted effects. In reality, the return to regular mortality ranges in 2023 is fairly sturdy proof that the Covid vaccines don’t improve fatalities long-term.
There are two fashions of dangerous unwanted effects {that a} medical remedy might trigger:
- It might be like a poison. The day you ingest a poison is the day it’s probably to kill you. Day by day after that, your physique flushes a few of it out of your system, and the hazard diminishes. After every week or a month or a 12 months, relying on the poison, it’s all gone out of your system so it will possibly now not damage you.
- It might be like a carcinogen. The day you ingest a cancer-causing chemical, it produces no instant hurt. However on daily basis after that, the carcinogen causes mutations in a few of your cells, doubtlessly turning them cancerous. A few years later, these broken cells could develop right into a most cancers that kills you.
Up to now, I feel most proof exhibits the Covid vaccine to be a poison, not a carcinogen. Ultimately your physique degrades and destroys the lipid nanoparticles and the mRNA they include and the Spike proteins they produce. After that, they’re gone. This doesn’t show that the vaccine can’t even be a cancer-causing agent along with being a poison. However most issues are one or the opposite, not each, and the Covid vaccine seems to be very very similar to a poison, not a carcinogen. Its risks seem to lower over time, not improve. The very fact is, billions of individuals took the Covid vaccine worldwide in 2021. Then these vaccinated folks died in unprecedented numbers in 2022, however had regular demise numbers in 2023. This matches the profile of a poison. If the Covid vaccine behaved like a carcinogen, there would have been no opposed well being results the day, week, month, or 12 months after the shot. Extra mortality would have been low in 2022 however rising in 2023. As an alternative, it was excessive in 2022 however falling in 2023. That’s the conduct of a short-acting poison, not a long-acting carcinogen.
Two years in the past, the media (or a minimum of the non-corporate media) was filled with tales in regards to the seemingly apocalyptic degree of extra mortality all over the world. Demise charges had been at document highs in nearly each nation on earth. Folks disagreed about what brought about it, however there was no denying that it was occurring. Anti-vaxxers seen that the very best demise charges occurred within the international locations which had vaccinated the most individuals. Professional-vaxxers ignored this truth and mentioned the deaths simply confirmed how harmful Covid was so how essential the vaccines had been.
However final 12 months (and up to now this 12 months) these scare tales have disappeared from the information. Extra mortality has fallen to close zero globally. Demise charges have returned to regular nearly in every single place, together with in the USA. Whether or not it is because Covid is gone or as a result of folks stopped taking the lethal vaccines is tough to say, though I’m positive each anti-vaxxers and pro-vaxxers are sure that it simply proves how proper they had been all alongside.
So, the apocalypse by no means occurred, and possibly by no means will. Folks have been predicting a non secular apocalypse for 2000 years. Now, in our secular age, folks appear to need to consider in a technological apocalypse. I, for one, am sick of apocalyptic predictions. 2000 years of false alarms is sufficient. The world will not be coming to an finish – not from Covid, and never from the Covid vaccines.
Eugene Kusmiak was a Purple Diaper Child and a Harvard graduate. After almost twenty years spent creating video video games in Silicon Valley, Gene shifted coasts and professions. He retired from a 20-year profession as a Portfolio Supervisor at a quantitative hedge fund in Manhattan in 2022. He survived being surrounded by progressives in Massachusetts, California, and New York and now enjoys residing in rural red-state Ohio.
