The blunder started years earlier than February 2022. Putin failed to comprehend that the US was making ready the overthrow of the Ukraine authorities. When the overthrow started, Putin took no motion to stop the overthrow. As a substitute, Russia permitted Washington to take over the previous province of the Russian state.
A hostile Ukraine is an existential menace to Russia. Why did Russia stand apart and allow Washington’s takeover? Why did Russia sit for the subsequent 8 years on its palms, rejecting the votes of the unbiased Donbas republics to be reunited with Russia from which they have been torn by Soviet leaders and caught in Ukraine? The wrongdoer in these strategic blunders was the Kremlin’s lack of realism. Putin relied on diplomacy although Washington depends on threats, bribes, and coercion. The Kremlin merely didn’t perceive that with the Minsk Settlement it was saddling a lifeless horse that would go nowhere.
When Putin was lastly compelled to intervene by the prospect that the inhabitants of Russian Donbas have been about to be slaughtered like Palestinians in Gaza right now, Putin failed to reply decisively. Nonetheless enjoying all by himself a diplomatic sport, he insisted that there be no Russian invasion of Ukraine, solely a “particular army operation” to clear hostile Ukrainian forces from Donbas. Misplaced in a diplomatic world that not exists, Putin failed to comprehend that no matter what he mentioned or did, Western propaganda would current the intervention as a reconstruction of the Soviet Empire that will lengthen to all of Europe.
It was instantly apparent that the restricted and slow-paced “particular army operation” would offer Washington and its NATO puppets considerable time to grow to be concerned within the battle, thus endlessly widening the battle till the battle grew to become an existential concern for Russia. That is what has occurred.
Nonetheless the Kremlin thinks unrealistically. Putin is on the verge of succeeding along with his objective of driving Ukrainian forces out of, and away from, the Russian populated areas, and the belief is that the battle will probably be over and Russia’s success will probably be acknowledged in a negotiated settlement.
This delusion persists regardless of Russian International Minister Lavrov’s acknowledgement that Washington intends Russia’s destruction. Each Lavrov and Putin proceed to emphasize that they’re keen to barter with Washington Washington’s intention to destroy Russia. It will be hilarious if weren’t so lethal.
Take heed to Lavrov’s speech. He understands the menace to Russia however is incapable of matching a Russian response to the menace. https://informationclearinghouse.weblog/2024/05/19/the-west-has-decided-to-sort-things-out-on-the-battlefield-russia-is-ready-lavrov/13/
Pondering Russia’s intervention to be restricted, Putin was unprepared for battle. He has accomplished little or no to hamper the Ukrainian authorities’s capacity to conduct battle. Reasonably than shutting down Ukraine, Putin selected a protracted drawn-out village by village conquest. The West interpreted this as restricted Russian army functionality, and this supplied each encouragement and time for the West to contain itself within the battle.
The West is so concerned now and the Western political leaders are so sure that Russia intends extra aggression that they’re making ready for battle in opposition to Russia. Nonetheless, Putin and Lavrov communicate of negotiation. After a decade of the West’s rejection of negotiation, how can the Kremlin nonetheless see negotiation as an answer?
What wanted to be accomplished was to knock Kiev out of the battle, set up a Russian pleasant authorities rather than the American puppet regime, and current the West with a fait accompli earlier than the West had time to become involved. It’s Western involvement that presents the hazard of the battle widening right into a battle between Russia and the West.
Probably the answer continues to be viable. It will go away a impartial Ukrainian state west of the Dnieper River with no Black Sea entry. It’s extremely unlikely that such an consequence may be achieved by negotiation. It could solely be imposed by power.
By restraining Russia’s use of power, Putin has opened the highway to nuclear Armageddon.
