Foreign Affairs
-While Israel appears victorious over its adversaries, it has greater economic problems and political turmoil.
-The Gaza war simmers down and becomes a low intensity occupation, with Israel allowing for some rebuilding and humanitarian efforts by the international community.
-The situation in Syria benefits Israel in the short term but creates problems for Israel in the long term.
-Syria devolves into a chaotic Libya-like scenario with ethnic sectarian conflict.
-Turkey intervenes to prevent a Kurdish state in Syria, and Israel intervenes to help the Kurds, which brings Israel and Turkey close to war but it deescalates.
-Iraqi Kurds declare nationhood.
-The fall of Iran and the Shia sphere and spillover from Syria lead to a Sunni vs Shia civil war in Iraq.
-Turkey and Azerbaijan attack Armenia proper, in an attempt to create a corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan, exploiting the decline of Armenia’s allies, Russia and Iran.
-Iran collapses politically and economically with mass civil unrest and a rise in ethnic separatism.
-There is a sectarian conflict along the borders of Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, involving Baloch and Pashtun separatists/the Taliban.
-Terrorism and sectarian conflict continue to accelerate in West Africa’s Sahel Region.
-With the ongoing civil war, Sudan has one of the worst famines in modern history.
-Mozambique collapses with a refugee crisis that destabilizes South Africa.
-Europe has another major terror attack.
-There is a further rise of nationalism in Europe, with nationalists taking power in several European nations, including the AFD in Germany.
-Trump negotiates an end to the Ukraine war, allowing Russia to keep Crimea and Donetsk.
-Ukraine agrees not to join NATO but is allowed limited military protection and is allowed to join the EU.
-Putin agrees to the truce, in part, to thank Trump for cutting funding to NATO.
-There are mass protests and civil unrest in Russia due to a lack of a decisive victory in Ukraine, and Russia’s economic situation.
-China has the greatest protests and civil unrest since Tiananmen Square in 1989.
-China puts invading Taiwan on hold.
-Trump enacts sanctions on Latin American nations that refuse to accept back migrants, which greatly harms their economies.
-Trump does limited military incursions into Mexico to deal with the cartels.
-Argentina’s Javier Milei gets inflation under control and prevents an economic crash, but income inequality gets much worse.
US Politics
-There is little to no civil unrest after Trump’s inauguration, with protests tepid compared to 2016 and the 2020 Summer of Floyd.
-There is a political civil war among Democrats, right after Trump’s inauguration, between progressives and neoliberals.
-There is another movement like Occupy Wall Street, along with a resurgence in class based leftism.
-Wokeness and overt anti-Whiteness will decline superficially but remain dormant and resurge again in the future due to indoctrination in education.
-Despite the decline in wokeness, there are mass protests against Trump’s deportations.
-AOC emerges as a greater player in the Democrat Party but leans more into an economic message while not totally abandoning woke identity politics.
-The Democrats’ pivot to the left on economics causes them to lose some support from the ultra wealthy and upper middle class Never Trumpers.
-There is a new realignment where Democrats are more for regulating Big Tech and AI while Trump is for more deregulation.
-Trump embraces tech/AI acceleration which backfires in a major crisis.
-Trump’s fight with the Deep State is messy and chaotic, and he backs down somewhat and tries to find a compromise with the FBI and CIA.
-Elon Musk’s DOGE has some success but Trump and Musk and Vivek have a disagreement over austerity cuts on Social Security and Medicaid.
-The growing tension among MAGA between the Tech Right and Nationalist Populists over legal immigration causes a huge rift that culminates in the GOP midterm congressional primaries.
-Trump initially favors the Tech Right but then tries to play to both sides.
-The GOP house proposes a merit based immigration bill that fails due to the divide on immigration policy.
-Trump’s reduces new migrant border crossings by about 70%.
-Trump is successful in deporting criminal aliens and illegal immigrants with existing deportation orders but the courts block him from deporting non criminal migrants who were admitted under Biden’s parole program.
-Trump has some policy successes using executive action on immigration and other issues.
-Republicans in Congress are too disorganized to govern well.
-There is a Democrat victory in the 2026 midterms, by toning down wokeness and running more candidates focused on economic populism.
-Democrats run a slate of Latino candidates with an economic populist message to counter Trump’s inroads among Latinos.
-Trump’s approval ratings plummet due to the economy.
-MAGA becomes demoralized and disappointed in Trump.
-Many disillusioned MAGA look to more radical politics from Christian Nationalism to White Nationalism and Red State secessionism.
-In a desperate attempt to save his floundering presidency, Trump pivots to the center on economic, environmental, and social issues, while remaining hawkish on immigration.
-Trump shows openness to work with the majority Democrat Congress on certain measures, but Democrats are too obstructionist.
-The 2028 GOP primary election is between RFK Jr., Ron DeSantis, and J.D. Vance.
-Vance wins the GOP nomination but loses to a Josh Shapiro/Wes Moore ticket.
-Shapiro initially repairs the division between neoliberals and progressives and is lauded as a new FDR but struggles to maintain that coalition as president.
-MAGA is diminished after the end of Trump’s 2nd term, and the GOP reinvents itself as a more centrist party, albeit somewhat nationalistic with some similarities to Europe’s Christian Democrat parties.
Economy
-There is a stock market crash in January of 2025.
-Recessionary signals come in hard in the first quarter of 2025 but a recession is not officially declared due to GDP stats.
-Trump’s personal and corporate tax cuts stimulate the economy, temporarily delaying the recession, and creating another bull market in the summer of 25’.
-Despite Trump’s corporate tax cuts, corporations accelerate automation for their workforce.
-Due to concerns about inflation resurging, the Fed is cautious about rate cuts.
-This pause in Fed rate cuts further strengthens the Dollar, which combined with Trump’s trade war, causes other nations’ economies to crash.
-The economies of China, Japan, the European Union, the UK, and Canada continue to deteriorate into depressionary conditions.
-Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs combined cause a big wave of inflation in late 2025 and into 2026.
-Trump backs down on certain tariffs while keeping others.
-There is a stagflation crisis or inflationary recession in 2026 and 2027.
Culture/Social
-People ironically embrace a new gilded age in the culture.
-More rightwing and anti-establishment people get involved in cultural endeavors.
-Interior aesthetics and architecture continue to move away from 2010s minimalism, with more color and retro inspiration.
-Social isolation and mental health issues continue to get much worse, with mainstream politicians starting to talk more about policy solutions.
-More mainstream political figures start talking about declining birthrates as a civilization crisis.
-Sociologists start discussing the traits of Gen Alpha as being more exuberant than GenZ.
-Alt-Right, incel, and 4Chan memes are referenced more in pop culture.
-Movies do poorly at the box office due to declining interest from GenZ and people getting burnt out from CGI films.
