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If he recovers from his sniffles and his jetlag in time, Manchester United’s latest signing Manuel Ugarte could make his debut for the club on Saturday against Southampton.
It is an undeniable fact that the Red Devils need more grit in central midfield, especially if manager Erik ten Hag is going to persist in playing a high press with a deep back line. This leaves vast swathes of the pitch empty of United men between attack and defence, consistently leaving the defence vulnerable and exposed.
According to Opta Analyst, United’s last outing, a 3-0 drubbing by Liverpool, “was the first time on record (since 2007-08) that United have committed as many [three] errors leading to goals in a single Premier League match and underlined the need for change in midfield.”
Ugarte is widely expected to replace Casemiro in the team, who was responsible for two of those errors and who took a great deal of criticism for his performance against Arne Slot’s men.
The Analyst points out that United faced the second most shots in the Premier League last season – 669 – and that this is a big part of the reason for their £42 million acquisition.
As can be seen from the chart, Ugarte was in the 100th percentile for defensive actions in Ligue 1 last term, playing for a team that generally outclasses its opposition.
source: theanalyst.com
The outlet notes that “He was the only player in Ligue 1 last season (minimum 900 minutes played) to average more than 4.0 tackle attempts per 90 minutes (4.6), while his 2.7 successful tackles was also more than anyone else.”
All this does result in the Uruguayan walking a disciplinary tightrope, with an average of 2.1 fouls per game. One area of concern is that, like Casemiro, he could find the pernickety Premier League referees do not take too kindly to his combative style. With the higher workload expected at leaky United than at PSG, staying on the right side of the law could be an issue.
He also performed well in recoveries (8.4 per 90) and interceptions (1.9 per 90) and charts showing the distribution of those actions clearly indicate a player who covers a lot of the pitch and has a great deal of positional intelligence.
source: theanalyst.com
source: theanalyst.com
The big question in regard to Ugarte is whether he will be able to contribute enough in possession. The Analyst notes that “he completed 91.4% of his passes last season, which was bettered by only eight players who attempted at least 1,000. The caveat is that his passing was rather simple and lacking in adventure.
“For instance, just 42 of his 1,314 open-play passes were deemed progressive … that’s 3.2%, the 13th lowest proportion among the 155 players to attempt at least 700 passes.”
source: theanalyst.com
source: theanalyst.com
In other words, don’t expect raking Scholes-esque passes and through balls from Ugarte. He is going to win the ball and lay off a simple pass to a colleague. In fact, this is what reportedly cost him his place under Luis Enrique, who wanted a player with a more progressive game at the heart of his midfield.
United were not just leaky defensively last season but they were also blunt in attack, too. Much of the reason for this was their predictability, with the majority of chance creation being generated from the wings. Close down the wings, and United were blunted.
Casemiro does at least “offer quality on the ball”, while Kobbie Mainoo is a technically gifted, tidy ball carrier. But some would argue that what is required in central midfield is more passing range, even a deep lying playmaker. With Ugarte, United will be be getting less. This is why the purchase of the 23 year old has been criticised in some quarters as negative and has led to fears that United’s style will be quite defensive this season.
Of course, if Ugarte offers defensive security, it may encourage others to take progressive actions more often. The full backs, in particular, may feel more able to provide overlaps and underlaps safe in the knowledge that the Uruguayan will be there to cover for them.
We may get to see the lay of the land in around 48 hours if Ten Hag decides to throw Ugarte straight in at the deep end. His two games for Uruguay will have helped him reach match fitness, but the gruelling journey and illness could have left him tired. We may find out more when Ten Hag takes his pre-match press conference this lunchtime.
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