A furor has erupted in North America over reports that Russia will expand its armed forces of 1.32 million by a new 180,000 men. This will bring Russia close to China’s armed forces of about 2 million active soldiers.
The pro-war right in the US and Europe are trumpeting this increase as a prelude to a coming East-West war. ‘The Reds are Coming’ goes the old Cold War chorus.
We heard the same canard during WWII when clever British propaganda convinced most people that Hitler’s Germany was determined to conquer the world. In truth, Germany was trying to restore its pre-World War I borders.
Such was also the case with Stalin’s Soviet Union. Both imperial nations were torn apart after 1918 by the rapacious French and British imperialists, abetted by the Americans. Germany was panicked into entering World War I in 1914 because it believed it was about to be attacked in a two-front war by France, Britain and Russia.
Big numbers scare people. Russia may have what seems a large army today, but it is a vast nation of 17 million square kilometers with over 12 different time zones stretching from Eastern Europe to the frozen Barents Sea. Over 100 ethnic groups and religions are found in the vastness of Russia, today the last of the great 19th century empires (unless we count the United States) – counting break-away Ukraine.
Guarding the vast borders of this imperium and keeping it together requires very large numbers of soldiers and police. In WWII, the USSR fielded an astounding 34 million soldiers. The USA deployed 16 million, China at least 14 million. By comparison. today’s numbers of soldiers look puny.
Even so, Russia’s 1.32 million and its new 180,000 soldiers will strain the weak national economy. But, how then, was Stalin able to mobilize 34 million soldiers? One reason: today’s weapons cost one hell of a lot more than in the 1940’s.
Russia knows that in wartime the US plans to unleash its powerful Navy and Marine Corps against its Pacific provinces, notably Vladivostok. This distant region relies on two vulnerable rail lines, the Trans-Siberian and Baikal-Amur Mainlines, for contact with the rest of Russia. Just as interesting, when I was invited to Beijing by Chinese intelligence, I asked its senior officers ‘how long would it take the Chinese People’s Army to seize Vladivostok’ their reluctant answer was only ‘two days.’
Russia’s naval forces are unable to support one another, a huge strategic weakness shockingly demonstrated by the calamitous 1904 Russo-Japanese War. Today, much of Central Asia is independent. Moscow is hard-pressed to keep the Caucasus under control, as two Chechen Wars have shown.
Russia probably needs a million-plus army just to keep the lid on the vast imperium. Its current ‘military operation’ in break-away Ukraine needs many more troops. This conflict now extends to a 1,000 km long border. Such vastness is too much.
A decade ago, President Putin declared his intent to downsize Russia’s conventional forces and rely on nuclear weapons to defeat any foes. Few in the west paid any attention amid all the anti-Putin hysteria. But this is what happened. The Red Army was seriously reduced; its tank armies and air forces cut to the bone, in line with the rest of Europe. Then came the US-engineered coup in Kiev that resulted in the current conflict. The once mighty Red Army was revealed to be a paper tiger led by bumbling generals.
There was a time when all cringed before the power of the mighty Red Army. That was very long ago.
