“Ebrahim Raisi was elected in a wholly uncompetitive election in 2021 when the outcomes have been preordained,” stated Arash Azizi, a author and historian who focuses on Iran. “The outcomes should not preordained this time.”
Iran’s political system means the president has restricted energy. The Islamic republic’s supreme chief — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — maintains direct or oblique management of all branches of presidency, in addition to of the army and the media. Nevertheless, the subsequent president may have a big impression on day by day life, together with spiritual necessities and gown restrictions — consequential in a rustic not too long ago rocked by protests demanding freedom for ladies within the theocracy.
Votes might be tallied as quickly as Sunday. However consultants suppose it’s probably that not one of the contenders will win a easy majority, wherein case Iranians will take to the polls as soon as extra in July for a runoff election between the 2 front-runners.
People looking for election to Iran’s presidency or parliament should obtain approval from the Guardian Council, which vets candidates to make sure they adhere to the rules of the Islamic republic. In follow, all 12 members of the council — six clerics and 6 jurists — are instantly or not directly appointed by Khamenei.
Eighty candidates entered the race to be president. The council permitted six, all them males. Two of these six dropped out simply days earlier than the election, a part of an effort by hard-liners to coalesce round a conservative candidate.
Ghalibaf, 62, has served as speaker of parliament since 2020 and was mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017. He boasts an intensive army historical past — together with three years as commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ air drive — and maintains shut ties to the IRGC, a strong political drive throughout the Islamic republic. A conservative, Ghalibaf is understood for his function in harsh crackdowns on pupil protesters in Iran whereas serving as an IRGC normal and later as police chief.
GET CAUGHT UP
Tales to maintain you knowledgeable
Although he served because the nation’s nuclear negotiator, Jalili is a critic of worldwide negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Jalili, 58, is a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, which was initially set as much as resolve conflicts between parliament and the Guardian Council however serves in follow as an advisory physique to Khamenei. If elected, Jalili is anticipated to proceed the tough crackdown on anti-government protesters and on Iranian ladies accused of violating the nation’s necessary hijab guidelines.
Described by analysts as the only real reformist within the race, Pezeshkian is a coronary heart surgeon who has primarily based his marketing campaign round Iranian ladies, youths and ethnic minorities. He has taken the other nuclear platform from Jalili, as an alternative campaigning on the aim of reopening nuclear talks with the West. Pezeshkian, 69, served as vice chairman of Iran’s parliament from 2016 to 2020, strongly supported the 2015 nuclear deal and challenged the official authorities narrative concerning the 2022 dying of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian girl who died in police custody after being detained for allegedly not carrying her hijab.
Pourmohammadi is the one cleric within the race. A conservative, Pourmohammadi, 64, beforehand served as inside minister below President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and later as justice minister below President Hassan Rouhani. Pourmohammadi, like Raisi, performed a number one function within the 1988 executions of hundreds of political prisoners held in Iranian jails.
Two of the conservative candidates permitted by the Guardian Council — Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, 58, and Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, 53, who served as one in every of Raisi’s vice presidents — dropped out on Thursday, narrowing the election to a four-way race with simply sooner or later till voting begins.
The 74 candidates whom the Guardian Council initially disqualified embrace authorities officers and lawmakers — even a former president — in addition to seven ladies.
“Solely those that settle for the basics of this deeply undemocratic system of the Islamic republic have ever been allowed to run,” Azizi stated.
If Iranians end up to vote, it may assist the only real reformist candidate
Whereas Pezeshkian is taken into account the only real reformist within the now four-candidate lineup, some view him as a possible front-runner. It’s unclear how two candidates’ withdrawal will have an effect on the race, which consultants broadly interpret as a three-way contest amongst Jalili, Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian.
“It actually is determined by the voter turnout,” stated Michelle Grisé, a senior coverage researcher at Rand. “Permitting Pezeshkian to run might be seen as an try to extend voter turnout, however we’ll see whether or not he’ll reach interesting to an voters that’s overwhelmingly disillusioned at this level.”
Lower than half of the voters voted in the newest presidential election in 2021, and the March parliamentary elections had traditionally low turnout, in line with Grisé.
However the 2021 election was largely thought of to be preordained in favor of Raisi, prompting many Iranians — particularly these annoyed by the ayatollah’s conservative regime — to boycott voting altogether.
“The query is, ‘Do Iran’s moderates end up in favor of Pezeshkian, or do they not end up in any respect?’” defined Heather Williams, additionally a senior coverage researcher at Rand. The regime needs “turnout, although they might moderately not get who the turnout goes to return out for,” she stated.
The election is being held early after the sudden dying of the final president
Iran was slated to carry its subsequent presidential election in 2025, however the sudden dying of Raisi moved the election up by a yr. Raisi died in a helicopter crash on Might 19 at age 63. Based on the Islamic republic’s structure, a particular election have to be held inside 50 days.
Elected in 2021, Raisi was broadly considered the victor of a rigged race, an effort by Khamenei to uphold his conservative regime. Some analysts consider Raisi was the ayatollah’s desired successor as supreme chief.
Within the wake of Amini’s dying in 2022, mass protests calling for the theocracy’s dissolution broke out in Iran and around the globe. Raisi oversaw a safety crackdown throughout which greater than 500 individuals have been killed, in line with a tally from the nongovernmental group Iran Human Rights. Iran later introduced it had pardoned greater than 22,000 who had been arrested.
Raisi’s dying got here at a time of accelerating instability and violence within the Center East. The struggle in Gaza has sparked a surge within the continually simmering tensions between Iran and Israel, as violence rises on Lebanon’s southern border, within the Crimson Sea and in Syria and Iraq, The Publish reported final month. In April, Raisi oversaw the most important Iranian assault towards Israel in retaliation for a lethal Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.
Most political energy in Iran is held by the supreme chief
Constitutionally, the president ranks second to the supreme chief, who holds many of the energy and is “the final word decision-making authority” on nationwide safety and protection, in line with Grisé. The ayatollah has in recent times “successfully encroached” on the president’s purview, Azizi stated, and seized extra energy.
Nevertheless, as head of presidency, the president holds essential duties over parts of day by day life in Iran, together with overseeing the nationwide price range and signing laws and treaties.
Crucially, the president of the Islamic republic influences how strict its morality police are in imposing the theocracy’s spiritual codes and gown restrictions, in addition to the extent of freedom that Iran’s media is allowed to exert.
“Then there are additionally some day-to-day freedoms that perhaps we don’t take into consideration as a lot, like who’s allowed to attend sporting occasions or how many individuals are allowed to assemble in public, or if ladies are allowed to bounce publicly,” Williams stated.
