Summary
The long-term trend in the U.S. stock market has been higher. In the 40-plus years since Ronald Reagan became president in 1980, stocks have turned in profitable performances almost 80% of the time. The average annual gain has been 13%. This year was another winner, as stocks in 2024 extended a bull market that started in October 2022. The rally was ignited by falling inflation and has been fueled by lower interest rates, consistent economic growth, and rising corporate profit growth rates. But despite the historical trends, there’s no guarantee that 2025 will be a bell-ringer as well. The start of the year may be difficult, as the Fed wrestles with stubborn inflation, the employment environment potentially weakens from a historically strong position, and geopolitical issues simmer. But earnings growth is expected to accelerate to a low-double-digit rate year over year during the first half. And should inflation resume its downward trek, giving the central bank more latitude to cut rates, the outlook for the second half should improve. We believe the stock market will take its cues from two sources in 2025. First is the Fed, which has been in the driver’s seat for this second leg of the bull market ever since it pivoted on its rate outlook. Second will be earnings growth, which is already solid but could get a boost in 2025 from Donald Trump’s new policies. It is at least modest comfort that the
