An Afghan girl warms up her hands as she is resting from carrying the water in Balucha, Afghanistan, Monday, Dec. 14, 2021. (AP Photo/Mstyslav Chernov, File)
The year just ended was a tumultuous one for Afghanistan, marked by many significant events that will continue to challenge the country in 2025.
ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) carried out at least 19 terrorist attacks, targeting Hazara and Shia civilians, Sufi adherents, foreign nationals and Taliban officials. One notable incident was the assassination of Khalil Rahman Haqqani, a senior Taliban leader and brother of the late Jalaluddin Haqqani, founder of the Haqqani Network.
The United Nations (U.N.) reported rising insecurity in 2024, and recorded 8,650 security incidents between November 2023 and November 2024. The U.N. noted that 156 civilians were killed and 426 others injured, many of these incidents attributed to ISIS-K.
Hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated, with Pakistan conducting airstrikes on Afghan territory in response to attacks by the Pakistani Taliban. The Afghan Taliban rounded out the year by attacking “several points” in Pakistan in retaliation for the strikes.
The Taliban faced internal divisions and security challenges. Criticism within the Taliban leadership, particularly regarding policies on women’s rights and medical education, highlighted growing fractures within the group, presenting the world with the situation where Sirajuddin Haqqani is now considered moderate.
Despite global diplomatic efforts, including summits in Doha, Moscow and Tehran, the Taliban failed to secure global recognition as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. The U.N. Security Council meeting in December 2024 revealed sharp differences among permanent members on how to engage with the Taliban.
In December 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing the future removal of the Taliban from the official list of terrorist organizations. And in February 2024, Chinese leader Xi Jinping accepted the credentials of the Taliban’s official envoy to Beijing.
Though the West expects the Taliban to modify their policies to secure legitimacy, recognition by Russia and China may prompt Afghanistan’s neighbors in Iran and the Central Asian republics to recognize the Taliban, reasoning that they are “neighbors forever” and must establish a modus vivendi.
Armed opposition groups such as the National Resistance Front and the Afghanistan Freedom Front carried out numerous attacks against the Taliban. The U.N. documented multiple instances of human rights abuses, including torture, arbitrary detentions and extrajudicial killings of military personnel and officials of the ousted Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.
The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan remains one of the most severe in the world, with 28 million people depending on aid to survive. The country’s economy has contracted by almost one-third in the aftermath of August 2021, leading to widespread unemployment, poverty and food insecurity.
Despite international efforts, including the U.S. provision of up to $8 billion in aid to Kabul since August 2021, some Taliban policies, including restrictions on girls’ education and women’s employment, continue to exacerbate the crisis.
Challenges for Afghanistan in 2025 include continuing human rights violations, economic instability and food insecurity; climate-related natural disasters; and regional political dynamics. Despite improved security, significant challenges persist due to 45 years of conflict.
According to the U.N., almost half of the population — around 22.9 million people — will require humanitarian assistance due to limited access to basic services and chronic needs. This includes widespread food insecurity, with 14.8 million people facing acute food insecurity.
The economy, which previously subsisted on foreign aid and opium poppy cultivation, has contracted significantly since the Taliban takeover in 2021, with widespread unemployment, underemployment, household debt and poverty affecting around 48 percent of the population. Though the U.N. recently reported “The Afghan economy showed some signs of recovery,” the financial system remains isolated, and development funding is drastically reduced.
Afghanistan is also experiencing its fifth consecutive year of drought, with earthquakes, floods and landslides exacerbating humanitarian needs.
A La Niña episode in 2025 could lead to further drought-like conditions, as well as reduced snowfall and rainfall. This will worsen food insecurity, with one-third of the Afghan population acutely food insecure. Drought will affect crop and pasture productivity, leading to higher food prices and increased economic hardship.
Years of over-extraction, inadequate water resource management and insufficient groundwater recharge have led to a severe water crisis. This affects agriculture and access to clean water for millions of people.
The Qosh Tepa irrigation canal will divert up to 20 percent of the flow of the Amu Darya river, increasing tensions with downstream, water-starved Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the latter of which has pledged to send a technical team to assist with the construction methods that will cause “excessive water loss and soil salinization,” according to the Center for the National Interest.
The Taliban will be challenged to support regional connectivity projects, including the Trans-Afghan Railway Project that will connect Central Asia to Afghanistan to Pakistan; the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India natural gas pipeline; and the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan high-voltage power transmission line.
Key to regional integration is improved relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which means resolving the disputes over the shared border, and the status of 1.45 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan.
After NATO left Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan expected to reap an influential role in Afghanistan’s future, but instead got attacks by the Pakistani Taliban from its bases in Afghanistan. Pakistan retaliated and the Afghan Taliban retaliated back. After the latest round of fighting in December 2024, the Taliban announced it wished to de-escalate but that a Pakistani response would cause “measured retaliation.”
It is time for diplomacy, which will be difficult given the Taliban’s need to manage a complicated internal situation caused by the presence of ISIS-K, al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban. And there’s no saying what the incoming Trump administration will do, but it will probably maintain a non-intervention policy. The Taliban appeared to welcome Trump’s return when an Islamic Emirate spokesman said Kabul hoped the incoming administration “will take realistic steps toward concrete progress in relations between the two countries and both nations will be able to open a new chapter of relations.”
James Durso served in the U.S. Navy for 20 years and has worked in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.
