A two-month delay in Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian electricity infrastructure west of the Dnieper River and secret talks on end-of-war terms by the Kremlin go-between Vladimir Medinsky (lead image, right) produced two signals from Kiev on Monday – one an offer by Vladimir Zelensky to reciprocate with a limit on Ukrainian missile and drone attacks on Russian territory. The second signal was a “consolation prize” from US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin who was in Kiev to meet Zelensky, his defence minister Rustem Umerov, and Ukrainian Armed Forces commander Alexander Syrsky.
From Zelensky’s press conference in Kiev, a Financial Times reporter wrote: “Russia putting an end to aerial attacks on Ukrainian energy targets and cargo ships could pave the way for negotiations to end the war, the Ukrainian president has said. Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists in Kyiv on Monday that ‘when it comes to energy and freedom of navigation, getting a result on these points would be a signal that Russia may be ready to end the war’…If Moscow and Kyiv agreed to end strikes on their respective energy infrastructures, it would be a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict, Zelenskyy said in reference to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. ‘We saw during the first [peace] summit that there could be a decision on energy security. In other words: we do not attack their energy infrastructures, they don’t attack ours. Could this lead to the end of the war’s hot phase? I think so,’ he said.”
Unusually, there has been no Pentagon readout after Austin’s meetings in Kiev. Instead, there was a “statement” in advance that “during his engagements, the Secretary will meet with Ukrainian leadership and underscore the U.S. commitment to providing Ukraine with the security assistance it needs to defend itself from Russian aggression on the battlefield.” The geographic phrase, “on the battlefield”, is interpreted in Moscow to be the key. The Pentagon followed with a list of new military supplies tagged for “Ukraine’s urgently needed battlefield requirements.”
CNN was briefed by Austin’s staff to emphasize the limited geography of the current US commitment. “A US defense official said that during their meeting, Austin emphasized to Zelensky the importance of Ukraine defending the territory it has taken inside Russia’s Kursk region and capitalizing on those gains, as well as fending off the Russians in the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk… Much of Austin’s later meeting with Umerov and Ukrainian Armed Forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi was also focused on Kursk, the defense official said, and the officials drilled down on military planning there for the next several months.”
The New York Times was told to report: “The United States has agreed to give Ukraine $800 million in military aid that will go toward manufacturing long-range drones to use against Russian troops, Ukraine’s leader said on Monday…A Pentagon official, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the issue, confirmed the move, which comes as the United States shifts its policy and moves toward shoring up Ukraine’s ability to fight the war with its own weapons and on its own terms…The decision to support long-range drone production in Ukraine may be a kind of consolation prize for Mr. Zelensky, who — despite repeated pleas — has so far failed to persuade Western partners to lift restrictions on using their long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia.”
The US newspaper also quoted Umerov, standing beside Austin, as saying Ukraine would decide on its own what deep Russian territory targets to strike with the new drones the US is paying for it to produce on Ukrainian territory. “Ukraine’s defense minister, Rustem Umerov, said on Monday that Ukraine had invested more than $4 billion in its defence industry. Appearing alongside the U.S. defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, in Kyiv, he said that long-range drones could hit targets more than 1,000 miles away and that they had already destroyed more than 200 military facilities in Russia…The decision also shows a change in tactics for the West.”
Sources in Moscow acknowledge the sequence of statements in time; they are uncertain of their meaning for the Russian General Staff and its chief, Valery Gerasimov (lead image, left). “It appears that they are husbanding the missiles”, said one. “I wonder if there is going to be a November surprise.” “It’s a fool’s bargain,” said another. “Noone except the Russian military can guarantee the Nazis won’t continue to attack. Zelensky’s word isn’t worth the gas it takes to utter it.”
Russian Defense Ministry bulletins reported on Tuesday that there are small but steady advances by the five army groups moving along the five directions of the main Donbass front. The day’s casualty rate for the Ukrainians was 2,050 on the ground.
In a separate report on Russian operations in Kursk, “340 [Ukrainian] servicemen [killed], 13 armoured vehicles were destroyed, including three tanks, five infantry fighting vehicles, three of them Bradley BMP made in the USA, and five armoured combat vehicles, as well as five artillery pieces, 11 vehicles and two electronic warfare stations. Six servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surrendered. In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost 25,662 soldiers, 172 tanks, 89 infantry fighting vehicles, 103 armored personnel carriers, 982 armored combat vehicles, 675 vehicles, 221 artillery pieces, 38 multiple rocket launchers, including nine HIMARS and six MLRS manufactured by the United States, nine anti-aircraft missile launchers complexes, five transport-loading vehicles, 54 electronic warfare stations, 11 counter-battery warfare radars, three air defence radars, 22 units of engineering and other equipment, of which 13 engineering barrier vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearance unit, as well as three armoured recovery vehicles. The operation to destroy the AFU [Armed Forces of the Ukraione] formations continues.”
The last reports of long-range Russian missile and drone strikes on the Ukrainian electricity grid and power stations west of the Dnieper River was on August 26. DTEK, the Ukrainian power supply company, acknowledged. “Ukrenergo has issued an order to introduce emergency blackouts. Please note that during emergency outages, schedules that can be predicted in advance do not apply. Power engineers across the country are working 24/7 to bring light back to the homes of Ukrainians.”
A non-Russian military source added: “electrical, gas storage, airfields hosting F16s and Patriot missile batteries [were hit]. The power is out across the country. Water is off in several places. Rail service is down as well. Let’s see if [Russian General Staff chief] Gerasimov keeps the pressure on and the lights off.”
The lights have come back on; the pressure of the electric war is off. “Yes,” a military source comments, “they’ve been holding back and keeping the strikes local and near to the front — Sumy, Kharkov, Odessa.”
So far during this month, notwithstanding air raid alerts issued by the Ukrainian authorities west of the Dnieper, Russian Defense Ministry bulletins and reporting by Boris Rozhin in Colonel Cassad claim that strikes have been made east of the Dnieper only on electricity systems which have a military function. “The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation defeated the facilities of the energy infrastructure that ensured the work of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine,” the ministry announced on October 12. A week later on October 19, the ministry bulletin reported: “The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation defeated the fuel and energy facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
Early this month, Rozhin also reported that Russian drones had hit “one of the Odessa substations [causing] interruptions of electricity in the city.” This followed the October 6, 7 and 9 missile strikes on Odessa region ports which hit the Paresa, Optima, and Shui Spirit vessels at berth, destroying their cargoes of imported munitions.
Source: https://liveuamap.com/
Zelensky’s mention of “freedom of navigation” in his press conference on October 21 was a reference to the role of these ports in the Ukrainian arms supply.
For the back channel of negotiations of east-of-Dnieper terms which Medinsky is in charge of, read this. Domestic Russian support for west-of-Dnieper terms are spelled out here. The Medinsky apologetics were debated last Thursday.
In Moscow on Monday Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized that the military geography of the battlefield is an end-of-war term for political negotiation. “The latest proposal was made by President Putin on June 14 during his speech at the Foreign Ministry when he said we were ready for talks based on recognition of realities, including amendments to the Russian Constitution, under which not only the Republic of Crimea, but also the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions were now and forever an integral part of the Russian Federation, as well as the situation on the ground, which all our Western partners and some countries from other regions, which come up with various initiatives, keep ignoring.”
