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Chinese equities are on track for their best week since 2008 after Beijing launched an economic stimulus package including a $114bn war chest to boost the stock market.
The CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed companies is up 14.9 per cent for the week in its best performance since November 2008, when China announced a similar stimulus package in response to the global financial crisis.
The rally comes as China’s leadership rushes to support the country’s capital markets, stabilise a property sector crisis and boost domestic consumption in order to meet its economic growth target of 5 per cent for the year.
On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China unveiled an Rmb800bn ($114bn) lending pool for the country’s capital markets, comprising funds to lend to companies to buy back their own shares and to lend to non-bank financial institutions such as insurers to buy local equities.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 3.7 per cent on Friday, up 12 per cent since the start of the week in its best weekly gain since August 2007, when it hit record highs just prior to the global financial crisis. The China rally has also pushed the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 4 per cent this week.
“We are at a pivotal moment for the Chinese economy and its equities market,” said Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at Abrdn, who said in a note that the US Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut would also be a significant tailwind.
“Global easing conditions are poised to bolster consumption, which is a boon for China, the world’s largest exporter,” he said.
Chinese authorities in August restricted the daily northbound data through the Hong Kong Stock Connect programme that shows foreign investor flows into mainland stocks.
But Citi said the past three days were “the busiest period for Citi’s equities sales and trading team in the Asia region, with record client flows” into Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange put out a notice on Friday warning investors of “abnormally” slow transaction speeds as a result of frenzied morning trading, said two people familiar with the situation.
“We can’t dismiss this as the same old policy,” said Winnie Wu, equity strategist at Bank of America. “This is the first time that the government is encouraging leveraged investment in the stock market. A liquidity-leveraged rally should still have significant room to go.”
David Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco, said the rally in Chinese stocks could be sustained. “China markets are about momentum, and I see certain parallels between the existing rally and that of the 2014-15 rally,” when Shanghai’s index rose about 150 per cent between June 2014 and June 2015 but then collapsed.
Chao added that as the dollar continued to weaken on the back of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, he predicted “possible rotation out of the expensive and crowded global tech trade into cheaper [emerging market] assets”.
