European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen (L) and US Vice President Kamala Harris (R) line up for the household picture on the UK Synthetic Intelligence (AI) Security Summit at Bletchley Park, in central England, on November 2, 2023.
Daniel Leal | Afp | Getty Pictures
Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to take the stage on the Democratic Nationwide Conference on Thursday and ship what’s regarded as the largest political speech of her profession.
The 59-year-old politician is predicted to stipulate her imaginative and prescient and coverage agenda to the American individuals, whereas many in Europe may even be curious to know what a Harris presidency might imply for the trans-Atlantic relationship.
Harris, who ascended to the highest of the Democrats’ ticket after President Joe Biden introduced an finish to his marketing campaign final month, is ready to go head-to-head in November with Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.
If Harris had been to win, political analysts instructed CNBC they count on a broadly comparable strategy to Biden’s coverage platform — albeit with some delicate variations on main worldwide points resembling the Russia-Ukraine warfare.
Europe is just not beneath any phantasm {that a} White Home win for the Dems would imply that america would offer for all of the continent’s safety wants and reverse its industrial polices.
Sudha David-Wilp
Senior fellow on the German Marshall Fund of america
For analysts on the Economist Intelligence Unit, the expectation is {that a} Harris presidency would provide a way of continuity on issues of international affairs.
“Which means a gradual decline in navy assist for Ukraine, fairly than the sharp discount to pressure peace talks that we might count on beneath Donald Trump; a nonetheless hawkish stance on China however with out Trump’s menace of fast tariff hikes; and continued efforts to steadiness assist for Israel with de-escalation of the warfare in Gaza,” EIU analysts Emily Mansfield and Andrew Viteritti instructed CNBC by way of electronic mail.
“Harris has actually not criticised Biden on any of those points, however she is more likely to shift the messaging round them, together with her emphasis on the humanitarian disaster in Gaza being one instance of this,” they added.
Ukraine, Israel and China
Francesco Nicoli, an assistant professor of political science on the Politecnico Institute of Turin in Italy, mentioned the present path of U.S.-European Union convergence was more likely to proceed beneath a Harris presidency, notably in relation to areas resembling commerce, synthetic intelligence, Huge Tech and local weather coverage.
“On Ukraine, we are able to maybe count on a Harris-Walz presidency to be bolder than Biden’s,” Nicoli instructed CNBC by way of electronic mail.
“With out essentially [changing] the ‘pink strains’ strategy that has up to now restricted US assist to Ukraine, it’s seemingly that the brand new Democratic ticket could have a considerably extra liberal strategy [to] offering Ukraine with the technique of pushing and testing such pink strains,” he continued. Tim “Walz, particularly, has been a really vocal supporter of Ukraine.”
US Vice President Kamala Harris, proper, and Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota and Democratic vice-presidential nominee, throughout a marketing campaign occasion at Fiserv Discussion board in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, US, on Tuesday, Aug. 20, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Pictures
Nicoli, who additionally serves as a visiting fellow on the Brussels-based assume tank Bruegel, mentioned a Harris presidency was unlikely to drastically alter the trans-Atlantic strategy on worldwide points resembling Israel and China.
He mentioned the European Fee, the EU’s govt arm, was more likely to hail any compromise deal between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas as successful “so long as the warfare finishes,” noting that the bloc gave the impression to be “pleased to go away the negotiating management” to the U.S.
A spokesperson for the European Fee was not instantly accessible to remark when contacted by CNBC on Thursday.
“Equally, whereas I’ve little doubt that, ought to China launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan the EU would react swiftly and coherently, the EU is presently too divided on China to be a reputable associate for the US in any scenario wanting an open battle,” Nicoli mentioned.
“The EU is more likely to proceed its piecemeal industrial coverage, which could be branded as anti-China in negotiations with any future US president, however in actuality it’s more likely to be countering the US virtually as a lot as China. A Harris presidency is unlikely to vary that,” he added.
Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas program at Chatham Home, mentioned Harris finds herself in “the troublesome place of staking out her international coverage whereas serving as Vice President,” however will seemingly embrace the same international coverage consensus to Biden.
“We all know she feels passionately about protesting Palestinian lives and that is maybe the realm the place we are going to see extra distinction,” Vinjamuri instructed CNBC by way of electronic mail.
“However notice [former President Barack] Obama’s phrases. ‘America can’t be the world’s policeman however it may be a pressure for good’. That is the place the occasion is and possibly the place Harris might be additionally,” she added.
Safety wants and industrial insurance policies
Sudha David-Wilp, a senior fellow on the German Marshall Fund of america assume tank, mentioned in a latest weblog submit {that a} Harris victory in November “would provide respiration area for Europe to strengthen its protection capabilities” and “modify to new realities” within the U.S.-EU relationship.
“Undoubtedly, there can be a sure diploma of continuity from the Biden administration to a Kamala Harris presidency by way of beliefs, actions, and advisors,” David-Wilp mentioned.
“However Europe is just not beneath any phantasm {that a} White Home win for the Dems would imply that america would offer for all of the continent’s safety wants and reverse its industrial polices.”
US Vice President Kamala Harris (L) shakes arms with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky throughout a gathering on the sideline of the Summit on peace in Ukraine, on the luxurious Burgenstock resort, close to Lucerne, on June 15, 2024.
Alessandro Della Valle | Afp | Getty Pictures
David-Wilp mentioned that as a substitute of “handwringing” over Biden’s signature Inflation Discount Act, the EU ought to work in tandem with the U.S. to guard provide chains from financial weaponization and give attention to pooling extra capital and analysis at residence to result in breakthroughs in areas resembling AI or inexperienced power.
“Harris wouldn’t disrupt the transatlantic relationship, however her international coverage focus would naturally flip to China first in addition to to addressing fast crises within the Center East and on the US southern border — matters which have extra relevance inside American home politics,” she added.
