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Internet migration drove the biggest annual inhabitants progress in England and Wales in 75 years final yr as births slipped to a two-decade low, highlighting the altering demographic pressures going through Sir Keir Starmer’s authorities.
The inhabitants of England and Wales grew by nearly 610,000 to 60.9mn within the yr to mid-2023, the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics stated on Monday, the biggest annual enhance since 1948.
Inhabitants progress was helped by 622,000 extra individuals immigrating than emigrating in that interval, in keeping with the statistics company.
On the identical time, the variety of births at 598,400 was the bottom in 21 years, contributing to the smallest “pure change” — outlined as whole births minus whole deaths — since 1978.
Consultants say immigration can ease the impression of an ageing inhabitants on the economic system and public funds, as a result of it might probably increase the share of individuals of working age.
However the final Conservative authorities got here beneath extreme political stress over the sharp rise in internet migration to the UK in the direction of the top of its time period in workplace.
In its manifesto Labour didn’t set a goal for internet migration, which fell 10 per cent to 685,000 in 2023. However earlier than the election Starmer’s get together vowed to “scale back the reliance on abroad employees [and] deal with homegrown abilities shortages”.
Tony Travers, professor on the London College of Economics, stated the ONS information meant the brand new authorities would both should “stay with a comparatively excessive stage of internet worldwide immigration” or “discover a means of re-engaging those that live right here however not within the labour market”.
“Worldwide immigration is a comparatively simple means of coping with labour market shortages, however there’s a chunk level between what you may tolerate politically and what the economic system wants,” he added.
Falling births are related to a shrinking share of the inhabitants being of working age and an increase within the proportion of older individuals.
The figures on Monday confirmed that the variety of individuals aged between 75 and 79 rose by 4.5 per cent, or about 110,000, within the yr to mid-2023.
In the identical interval, progress throughout the entire inhabitants stood at 1 per cent, whereas the working-age inhabitants — which contains individuals between the ages of 20 and 65 — was stagnant.
Excluding London and the West Midlands, all areas of England and Wales recorded extra deaths than births, the ONS stated.
Some economists have pointed to the advantages of a “longevity dividend” — or capitalising on more healthy older generations — however others have warned about elevated pressures on public funds and financial progress.
Travers stated that with the working-age inhabitants falling as a share of the entire inhabitants, “you’re more likely to find yourself with a better tax burden on those that are in work until you may drive up progress by way of increased productiveness”.
Final week a UN report discovered that one in 4 individuals all over the world was dwelling in a rustic whose inhabitants had already peaked in dimension, together with China, Germany and Japan.
Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford college, stated inhabitants progress in England and Wales had “contributed to elevated housing prices, in a rustic the place home-building has not stored tempo”.
However she added that increased inhabitants density may “have optimistic impacts on innovation and productiveness and that increased migration will help public funds”.
With new visa guidelines set out by the final authorities more likely to scale back ranges of inward migration this yr, Sumption stated the most recent charge of inhabitants progress was not “more likely to persist”.
