When Britain votes in a common election on July 4, one particular person will seemingly know the result earlier than anybody else.
John Curtice, a professor of political science on the College of Strathclyde in Glasgow, will spend Election Day together with his workforce, honing the findings of a nationwide exit ballot. At 10 p.m., earlier than any outcomes have been counted, he’ll make an enormous, daring prediction that shall be introduced on nationwide tv: the winner.
“The stunning factor in regards to the interval between 10 o’clock and 11.30 p.m. is that no person is aware of!” stated Professor Curtice with a smile, elevating his palms into the air. “It’s that second once we don’t actually have a authorities.”
Whereas he’s proper that nobody will know the ultimate tally till outcomes roll in from Britain’s 650 constituencies, up to now six common elections his workforce’s exit ballot has proved strikingly correct, appropriately predicting the most important social gathering each time. In 5 of the six, the margin of error for that forecast was 5 parliamentary seats or fewer.
That report is a part of what has made this 70-year-old professor, together with his formidable mind, unruly tufts of white hair and infectious enthusiasm, an unlikely media star. However his beloved standing in Britain goes deeper. He’s frank and scrupulously nonpartisan, making him a rarity in an age of polarization — a trusted supply of data throughout the political spectrum.
“I attempt to converse in human. I’m making an attempt to talk in ways in which most of the people will perceive,” he informed The New York Instances over a frugal tuna sandwich lunch within the atrium beneath the BBC’s Westminster studios.
“Typically I kick one social gathering and different instances I kick the opposite,” he stated. “And normally I kick each of them.”
‘You Don’t Have Time to Assume About Going to Sleep’
In February, as broadcasters awaited the outcomes of particular elections in two parliamentary districts, Professor Curtice was in entrance of the TV lights at 10 p.m. as a BBC Information producer adjusted his earpiece.
His evaluation was characteristically fluent, as have been the 20 or so different interviews he accomplished by an evening of TV appearances that stretched into breakfast time the next day.
Fueled by espresso and a bowl of porridge consumed round 6 a.m. within the BBC cafeteria, he then strode off to the broadcaster’s radio studios, persevering with a media blitz that ended at 4 p.m. It was an exhausting, exhilarating stint of 18 hours.
“You don’t have time to consider going to sleep — it’s adrenaline, it’s mental pleasure, it’s an mental problem,” he stated.
He comes ready, nonetheless, his laptop computer brimming with information from earlier elections, information that will or might not be damaged, and his pondering for the way he can summarize the most probably eventualities.
Professor Curtice’s first political reminiscence is of the election of Harold Wilson as chief of the opposition Labour Celebration in 1963. He was 9 years outdated. A 12 months later, he was allowed to remain up late on common election evening, when Mr. Wilson gained a small majority, bringing Labour to energy for the primary time in 13 years.
“Don’t ask me why, I simply discovered it attention-grabbing,” he stated.
He was raised in Cornwall, on the rugged shoreline of southwest England. His father labored in development, his mom a part-time market researcher and the household was affluent sufficient to personal a indifferent home with a big backyard (however no central heating).
At Oxford College, the place he studied politics, philosophy and economics, Professor Curtice was a up to date of Tony Blair, who went on to turn into prime minister, however their paths didn’t cross. Whereas Mr. Blair performed in a rock band referred to as Ugly Rumours, a younger Professor Curtice was a choral scholar who spent two hours a day at evensong.
As a postgraduate, he was urged to turn into “statistically literate” by his mentor, David Butler, a towering determine in British political science who ran the nation’s first exit ballot in 1970.
His first TV election evening look was in 1979, the evening Margaret Thatcher got here to energy. Armed with a calculator he had programmed himself, he supplied Professor Butler with statistical backup in case the BBC’s mainframe laptop went down.
It was exit polls, nonetheless, that basically made Prof. Curtice’s title. His first involvement was in 1992, which he later informed The Guardian was “not a cheerful expertise” as a result of the ballot predicted a hung Parliament as an alternative of the modest majority of 21 that John Main gained for the Conservatives.
Since 2001, a new mannequin he created with David Firth, one other tutorial, has improved the accuracy of the forecasts, generally to the discomfort of politicians. In 2015, Paddy Ashdown, the previous Liberal Democrat chief, promised to eat his hat if the exit ballot prediction that his social gathering would retain solely 10 of its almost 60 seats proved right. Actually it gained fewer. On a TV present the next evening, Mr. Ashdown was handed a hat-shaped chocolate cake.
Lately, the exit ballot is collectively commissioned by three nationwide broadcasters — the BBC, ITV and Sky Information. On July 4, tens of hundreds of voters across the nation shall be handed a mock poll paper on their manner out of polling stations and requested to mark in non-public how they voted.
In 2017, the ballot appropriately predicted that, as an alternative of accelerating her majority in Parliament, as she and plenty of analysts anticipated, Theresa Could had misplaced it. In 2019, the projected dimension of Boris Johnson’s majority was off by simply three seats.
Professor Curtice shouldn’t be complacent, nonetheless, and notes that upsets are all the time doable — as in 2015, when the exit ballot projected a hung Parliament, however David Cameron scraped a skinny majority. “Individuals assume there’s some magic, however we’re solely nearly as good as the info,” Professor Curtice stated.
‘Very, Very Extremely Inconceivable’
Exit polls are trickiest when elections are shut. This time, the Conservative Celebration, which has held energy for 14 years, has lagged the opposition Labour Celebration in opinion polls by about 20 factors for 18 months. Whereas such leads normally slender within the remaining weeks of a marketing campaign, the Conservatives would want to make fashionable electoral historical past to win.
Professor Curtice places their probabilities of forming the following authorities at lower than 5 p.c — “the purpose at which statisticians go: it’s very, very extremely unbelievable.” He provides that that is partly as a result of, even when the Conservatives beat expectations and the result is a hung Parliament, they lack allies who would maintain them in energy as a minority authorities.
Honored with a knighthood by Queen Elizabeth II in 2017, Professor Curtice is now well-known sufficient that strangers greet him on the street. His title traits on social media on election nights, and there’s a tribute account on X devoted to monitoring his media appearances referred to as, “Is Sir John Curtice On TV?” (Proper now, the reply is usually “Sure.”)
Might this be his final common election TV look? That, he stated, is one thing he’ll contemplate after the vote. “If the following election is in 5 years, I shall be 75, and who is aware of?”
However for now, the nation wants him. “There are loads of consultants who know loads however can’t translate that in a manner that’s clear to the viewers,” stated BBC Information anchor Nicky Schiller after interviewing Professor Curtice on the evening of the February particular elections. And, he added, “He’s a pleasure to work with.”
