The sudden demise of Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, opens a brand new chapter of instability simply because the more and more unpopular Islamic Republic is engaged in choosing its subsequent supreme chief. Mr. Raisi, 63, had been thought of a major candidate, particularly favored by the highly effective Revolutionary Guards.
Even earlier than the helicopter crash that killed Mr. Raisi, the regime had been consumed with inner political and non secular struggles because the supreme chief, Ali Khamenei, 85, the longest-serving head of state within the Center East, is in declining well being.
However given fears of instability at a time when the Islamic Republic is going through inner protests, a weak financial system, endemic corruption and tensions with Israel, analysts count on little change in Iran’s international or home insurance policies. Mr. Khamenei has set the route for the nation, and any new president won’t alter it a lot.
The system is “already on a trajectory to make it possible for the successor of the supreme chief is totally consistent with his imaginative and prescient for the way forward for the system,” stated Ali Vaez, the Iran director on the Worldwide Disaster Group.
He described “a fairly hard-line imaginative and prescient” during which key areas of international coverage, like help for regional proxy militias and creating elements for a nuclear weapon, are usually not going to vary.
Whoever is chosen as the subsequent president, Mr. Vaez stated, “must be somebody who falls consistent with that imaginative and prescient, a subservient figurehead.”
Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran skilled with the European Council on Overseas Relations, additionally sees continuity on key international coverage points, together with regional points and the nuclear program. “These information have been below the management of Iran’s supreme chief and the I.R.G.C.,” she stated, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, “with Raisi having little affect throughout his tenure as president.”
“Raisi was actually helpful to some I.R.G.C. factions,” stated Ms. Geranmayeh. Not like his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, Mr. Raisi, a extra conservative loyalist, “didn’t problem the I.R.G.C. both on home or international coverage points,” she stated.
However criticism of Mr. Raisi’s efficiency as president had already raised questions on whether or not he was one of the best candidate to succeed Mr. Khamenei, she stated.
Mr. Raisi’s principal rival was thought of to be Mr. Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, 55, whose candidacy has been harmed by the aura of a monarchical succession.
Mr. Raisi’s demise might give Mojtaba Khamenei a better path to succeed his father. However the inner workings of Iran’s spiritual and home politics are intentionally mysterious, and the choice in the long run can be made by a council of senior clerics referred to as the Meeting of Consultants. Although Mojtaba Khamenei is taken into account to be a favourite of the clergy, they might but determine to select one among their very own or have extra of a collective management.
His father, the supreme chief, had labored laborious “to scale back the unpredictability inside the system by grooming President Raisi to doubtlessly be his successor and now all of these plans are out of the window they usually’re again to the drafting board,” stated Mr. Vaez.
Externally, the challenges are additionally steep. Iran and Israel attacked one another instantly in April, whilst Israel is already combating Iran’s navy proxies — Hamas in Gaza and, much less vividly, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran additionally sponsors the Houthis in Yemen, who’ve attacked delivery within the Crimson Sea.
Iran has labored to keep away from a bigger warfare between Hezbollah and Israel, and a direct battle with Israel can also be one thing the Islamic Republic can ailing afford.
It has been holding intermittent talks with the USA on de-escalating the regional battle and on the way forward for its nuclear program. The demise of Mr. Raisi threatens to complicate these talks, too.
“Whereas there can be no love misplaced in D.C. for Raisi, instability in Iran would come at a foul time,” stated Trita Parsi, an Iran skilled on the Quincy Institute for Accountable Statecraft, making “escalation prevention all of the harder.”
