The American dissident proper has a robust curiosity in South Africa, so far as a template for America’s future, as Whites face changing into a minority. Afrikaner commentator, Dan Roodt, described South Africa because the canary within the coal mine for the West. The American left additionally has an curiosity in South Africa’s politics, particularly the anti-Apartheid wrestle, as Individuals are inclined to deal with different nations as proxies for his or her home political points. Regardless, there are some parallels to South Africa with Democrats proposing a fact and reconciliation committee and racial quotas at authorities companies and companies changing into extra like South Africa’s BEE (Black Financial Empowerment).
Supply: @powerfultakes on X
After a protracted silence about South Africa’s issues because the fall of Apartheid, mainstream Western publications have been not too long ago reporting on the breakdown of South Africa. For example, Bloomberg Information proclaimed South Africa was on the verge of chaos final 12 months and the BBC quoted an ANC politician who mentioned that South Africa may develop into a failed state. South Africa is one in every of many countries liable to collapse, because the World South is going through a disaster brought on by debt and breakdowns in provide chains, and South Africa is one in every of 17 nations liable to state fragility in 2024.
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American right-wingers hyperbolically use the time period White genocide, to explain South Africa, in addition to the state of affairs in America. Nonetheless, the mainstream human rights group, Genocide Watch, locations South Africa within the 6th Stage of Genocide, which is polarization. This is because of assaults on White farmers but additionally xenophobic assaults on African immigrants, with the perpetrators being South African police and the leftist Black Nationalist, Financial Freedom Fighters. Farm assaults have surged after the EFF’s Julius Malema chanted “Kill the Boer.” The subsequent stage for genocide is preparation.
Nonetheless, a scientific genocide, just like the Rwandan Genocide, will not be seemingly in South Africa, and I’ve observed this narrative extra from the web American proper than from South Africans. It is because, in contrast to Rwanda with a transparent Hutu majority, South Africa’s Black inhabitants is split up into many ethnic teams which don’t belief nor care a lot for one another. South Africa’s geography and inhabitants are so dispersed, with Whites concentrating within the Cape area. The Cape’s dominant mixed-race Colored inhabitants, would seemingly ally with Whites if there was an ethnic sectarian battle. Nonetheless, Whites in urbanized elements of Gauteng (Johannesburg and Pretoria), in addition to Durban can be susceptible in a collapse state of affairs.
South Africa has probably not had a full-blown ethnic sectarian battle, and even the 2021 Durban riots, proved that revolutionary forces simply don’t have the competency to hold out a genocide. For a scientific genocide to happen, South Africa’s major Black ethnic teams must unite underneath one anti-White banner and be effectively organized, which isn’t to say unattainable however not a possible state of affairs. What is probably going is a rise in racially motivated violent crime, rioting and looting, and anarcho-tyranny, with the State refusing to prosecute anti-White violence. Principally, South Africa is continuous, low-intensity civil unrest and excessive crime however they by no means get massive occasions like civil wars or revolutions.
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South Africa’s main issues embrace a water disaster, a cholera outbreak, collapsing ports, and an power disaster (load shedding), which particularly is tremendously harming the financial system. South Africa’s charge of financial progress has come to a standstill, South Africa has tanked in its corruption index and is rated by the World Financial institution because the nation with the very best wealth inequality. South Africa additionally has one of many World’s highest unemployment charges at 32.1%, and an astonishing 59.4% charge for youth.
Whereas South Africa’s inflation charge is just 5.6% and its debt to GDP charge is 65.81%, which isn’t the worst on the earth, the excessive unemployment charge and power disaster will result in extra debt. To not point out that the US Fed charge hikes will improve curiosity on debt for indebted Third World nations. South Africa’s monetary system was grey-listed for monetary backing of Islamic terrorism, and in addition most likely as punishment for South Africa’s alliance with Russia. Nonetheless, South Africa’s large gold reserves have considerably helped offset financial issues, together with the debt.
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With this 12 months’s election, there’s a energy vacuum with the ruling social gathering, the African Nationwide Congress (ANC), plunging in assist. This election will seemingly be the primary ever that the ANC fails to recover from 50% of the vote. Beneath a Parliamentary System, the opposition events are additionally very fractured, with the primary events being the neoliberal centrist Democratic Alliance, which represents minorities, the EFF, and former president Jacob Zuma’s MK Occasion, which represents Zulus and could be very radical. There’s additionally a rightwing Zulu social gathering, the Inkatha_Freedom_Party and an Afrikaner Nationalist Occasion, Freedom Entrance Plus. Because the ANC will probably be pressured to type a caucus, caucusing with the DA may have a moderating or decelerationist affect whereas caucusing with both the EFF or the MK Occasion, or maybe each, will push South Africa’s regime in a way more radical and militantly anti-White course. For example, land appropriation with out compensation.
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South Africa is experiencing a slow-motion collapse and has taken for much longer to break down than many anticipated. South Africa is an 80% Black nation that could be very “Woke” by non-Western requirements, so it ought to have lengthy since collapsed by all metrics, in response to Western right-wingers however someway it hasn’t. If South Africa doesn’t collapse, it completely discredits accelerationism and reveals how lengthy the American system could be sustained with a managed decline. South Africa serves as a grim reminder about how dysfunctional and shitty a State could be whereas nonetheless current and exerting energy over the populace.
Supply: @ConCaracal on X
South Africa has bubbles the place well-off Whites reside which might be mainly First World on a small scale. South Africa’s higher center class and rich have a top quality of life, regardless of the hazards and potential of changing into targets of the regime. Nonetheless, these bubbles are maintained by in depth non-public safety and plenty of servants. To not point out White flight, equivalent to from Gauteng to the Western Cape serving as a security valve.
Whereas South Africa is total harmful, it has not gotten to a vital mass the place a lot of the rich really feel a dire have to get out. Whereas South Africa misplaced about 11k millionaires over the previous decade, South Africa has not too long ago develop into a magnet for digital nomads from Europe and the US. Additionally, as a result of actual property is so low cost whereas the South African Rand is weak, quite a lot of the rich are hesitant to downsize from an enormous property to one thing way more modest in say London, Sydney, Vancouver, or California.
The dissident proper assumes that when demographics attain a sure tipping level or the financial system tanks, White normies will all get “purple pilled” on race. Nonetheless, even South Africa has an honest quantity of Whites who’re liberal on racial points, with related problems with upper-class Whites advantage signaling whereas throwing odd Whites underneath the bus. South Africa’s White elite made a cope with the brand new Black regime with the intention to retain their wealth, although this association is unsustainable.
Whereas the dissident proper assumes {that a} extra non-White America will collapse, it’s believable for issues to get a lot worse for center class Whites whereas America’s imperial core is sustained. Even California has not collapsed, after hemorrhaging its White Center Class, and will get by with a Latino working-class and more and more Asian managerial class.
The dissident proper pontificates about whether or not America’s future will probably be like Brazil, South Africa, or Trudeau’s technocratic Canada. I foresee pockets of America which might be like Brazil or South Africa, hypercompetitive firm cities dominated by Asian and Indian immigrant managerial strivers, center class Whites persevering with to get squeezed out from each the highest and the underside, rural White conservatives changing into extra tribal and completely remoted from main establishments, and the White higher class gatekeeping non-White strivers whereas sequestering sure zones away for themselves.
Nonetheless, America is much from collapse and I predict that foreigners will proceed to purchase US shares, treasury bonds, and actual property as a hedge towards instability. Principally, America will profit from different nations’ chaos and demise. Even the hyperbole about civil conflict feels extra like political theater fairly than a severe menace to elite energy, and Individuals are too sedentary to insurgent.
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South Africa’s issues stem from attempting to create a Western model nation-state that can be urbanized and a liberal democracy, out of many African tribes. Leftists are literally appropriate that the British Empire screwed issues up by not respecting ethnic tribal boundaries, however unintentionally find yourself making an ethnonationalist argument. Whereas I don’t assume Apartheid was sustainable, South Africa can be higher off carved up into smaller nations or underneath a decentralized confederacy of semi-autonomous areas.
Supply: @uMarhobane on X
South Africa’s collapse will seemingly play out as a gradual breakdown of presidency providers and as a replacement a extra decentralized order of tribes and enclaves. Not like America, South Africa lacks a robust administrative state, and segments of Afrikaners are effectively organized for a post-collapse state of affairs. This mockingly is hopeful for many who want self-determination. South Africa’s Civic Nationalist Cape Independence motion and even an impartial Afrikaner nation, just like the Orania motion, has some probability at taking place whereas the possibilities that California and Texas, or not to mention any ethnic separatist actions, have of changing into impartial nations are nil.
